Furloughs remain a recurring theme in forecasting sequestration’s impact

On the eve of a vote to adjourn Congress until after the elections, top military and civilian Defense Department officials unveiled new details on the harm that looming across-the-board budget cuts would inflict if they kicked in this January.

Warning two House panels of impending cuts to stateside training and a need to renegotiate recent contracts, officials avoided delving down to the level of specific programs and they steered clear of taking sides in Congress’ ongoing political stalemate over the budget.

“I contend we’re already in sequestration, that jobs are being lost and things are getting cut off,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon, R-Calif., told a hearing. “As far as I’m concerned, the DoD shuts down in January.”

He noted that one program that might be jeopardized is training to thwart the improvised explosive devices that are killing U.S. troops in Afghanistan. It wasn’t fair, McKeon added, that defense is 17 percent of the federal budget but took 50 percent of the cuts in the 2011 Budget Control Act.

Gauging the probable impact of a $52 billion cut in fiscal 2013, or 9.4 percent, to all Pentagon programs except military personnel, Comptroller Robert Hale said he foresees cuts concentrated disproportionately in operations and maintenance.

“The Army and Marine Corps would have less training, and there would be civilian personnel hiring freezes and possibly unpaid furloughs,” he said. “There would be substantial adverse effects on research and development, procurement, and military construction. We would buy fewer quantifies of weapons, which drives up unit costs, and shipbuilding would be delayed.”

Sequestration also would require cutting family housing maintenance and base operating support, while delaying TRICARE payments to providers, “which could end up in denial of service," Hale said. “We’d have some authority to move money into operations to protect wartime operations, but I don’t want to make it sound easy. I hope Congress passes something the president can sign and halt sequestration.”

Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III, the Army’s vice chief of staff, said sequestration would “significantly increase risks and cause us to relook” at the defense strategy the Obama administration released in January. If the automatic cuts must happen, he said, then “we must be afforded resources to adjust, to reduce inefficiencies and focus on the highest priorities.”

Adm. Mark Ferguson, vice chief of naval operations, said the Navy would be hit with a $12 billion cut that would require “difficult choices in the second half of fiscal 2013,” chiefly in procurement and force structure. “That would translate into fewer sailors, fewer [shows of fleet force] and less maintenance, and would impact the industrial base and the service life of platforms,” he said. It also would involve $4 billion in cuts to shipbuilding and acquisitions, which could harm technology development centers.

Describing a recent visit to 10,000 sailors on an aircraft carrier, Ferguson said, “all of them expressed concern over what this would mean to the Navy and to their service -- the fiscal crisis is increasingly on their minds.”

Gen. Joseph Dunford, assistant commandant of the Marine Corps, made a contrary point, saying the troops in Afghanistan “are too busy doing their jobs to think about what we’re doing in Washington for the next budget.” But he said he fears that “we will lose the trust and confidence of the all-volunteer force, which will take a long time to get back.” The Marines won’t “miss a call,” he added, but January might bring the beginning of a “hollow force. The bench back home would get thinner and thinner, causing significant degradation in our readiness.”

All the officials stressed that the planning under way dealt with dollar cuts and they could not answer questions from lawmakers about specific contracts or programs. They added contracts signed using dollars from fiscal 2012 or before were fully funded.

“We won’t start cutting in advance, because we don’t want to sequester ourselves,” Hale said. “But it is in the back of our minds, and we will pick up the pace now that everyone understands the law, even if they don’t like it.”

Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., asked colleagues “how could you listen to the comptroller and vice chiefs and conclude the Pentagon wasn’t planning?” He said it was more important to focus on a solution than on prospective harm that the Pentagon has had no choice but to anticipate.

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., concerned about the prospect of the Pentagon having to renegotiate 2,500 contracts, asked Hale whether he’d favor a new law to head off sequestration. Hale said he would take the suggestion under consideration.

Hale intervened to prevent service leaders from responding when they were asked whether they agreed with the Obama administration’s insistence on a “balanced” solution to the fiscal predicament.

At a later hearing by the House Small Business Committee, Hale’s deputy, Michael McCord, delivered similar testimony to members and industry witnesses concerned that some defense small business contracts already have been canceled.

“I’d be inclined to look at furloughs more than reductions in force, meaning we won’t lose expertise but we would lose work years,” he said. The impact on morale “can’t be quantified, but you don’t wish to tell people ‘you’re about to be laid off,’ ’’ he added, which is why the Defense secretary advised against it. “That uncertainty creates a bad dynamic.”

Richard Ginman, director of Defense procurement and acquisition, said, “the vast majority of our contracts are fully funded, so there’s no need to terminate existing contracts unless the product is no longer needed.” But he stressed that contracts are let based on the needs of the warfighter, not on whether the contractor is small or large. Nonetheless, Ginman sought to reassure panel ranking member Nydia Velazquez, D-N.Y., that the Pentagon would continue its efforts to meet the goal of 23 percent of contract dollars going to small business. “The Office of Acquisition, Technology and Logistics pays attention to industrial base, sector by sector,” he said. “They will continue analysis of key technologies and take action to protect them.”

At the Armed Services hearing, sparks flew over the politics that led to sequestration becoming an increasingly real proposition. McKeon and others blamed the Senate for failing to enact a budget or to take up House-passed solutions. “The way I read the Constitution,” he said, “they have to pass something in the Senate so that we can then meet in conference to work out our differences.”

Rep. Austin Scott, R-Ga., blamed the Senate and the White House for failing to pass a budget, saying, “it’s time for President Obama to lead, follow or get the hell out of the way of this country.” Rep. Sylvester Reyes, D-Texas, said Congress should “look in the mirror” to place blame. “I didn’t vote for this idiotic law.”

Rep. Robert Andrews, D-N.J., said Congress is being irresponsible for leaving town with six weeks to go before the elections. He said he planned to vote no on the motion to adjourn.

Correction: The original version of this article misattributed a quote to Rep. Tim Griffin, R-Ark. The article has been updated to correctly attribute it to Rep. Austin Scott, R-Ga.