Missile defenses will not be fully completed on schedule, official says
HUNTSVILLE, Ala. - The U.S. missile defense system scheduled to be deployed by October 2004 will be only a "70-percent" system at that time and will field two currently competing booster rockets instead of selecting one, a senior U.S. missile defense official said here yesterday.
The remarks came in a broad outline of the plan and its progress laid out at an annual missile defense conference here by Maj. Gen. John Holly, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's manager for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense program.
"We're going to start a journey by fielding a system that's probably 70 percent of what we want, but we're doing it in a very deliberate manner where we're going to incrementally grow … the system over time to ensure that when we're done with it, that we have a real product that makes a huge difference in the defense of our country," Holly said.
He said, though, "I believe that we will execute the president's mission and we will be on alert in '04," adding that there is no room for flexibility if the program is to reach the goal defined by a December 2002 presidential order.
At that time, President Bush ordered that elements of a ground-based system, including six interceptors in Alaska and four in California, be made operational and put on alert by October of next year, even as development and testing activities continue. Under the plan, 10 more interceptors would be deployed in Alaska the following year.
"This is a significant mission for us, and we have a very short period of time with which to fulfill this mission, but I'm here to tell you I think we'll do it," Holly said yesterday.
Lt. Gen. Joe Cosumano, head of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command, concurred.
"This has been a very aggressive program. It still is aggressive. And I think we're going to do it," he said.
Critics continue to question the effectiveness of the technology involved and the feasibility of the time frame, but Holly repeatedly expressed optimism that Bush's order will be carried out successfully.
"If we build it, does it work? I expect the answer is, 'yes,'" he said, adding, "We've demonstrated that hit-to-kill works," referring to controlled tests in which mock enemy warheads were intercepted by the ground-launched missiles.
"At the end of '04," Holly said, the United States will have "a limited capability, but a credible capability."
Amid questions about which of the two competing booster rockets will be chosen for the ground-based system, Holly said both Lockheed Martin and Orbital boosters will be fielded in the plan's first operational phase.
He said Fort Greely in Alaska, where 16 interceptors are scheduled to be based, will be a "mixed field" including both boosters, while no decision has yet been made on which booster to use at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
However, according to Lockheed Martin Missile Defense Marketing Manager Ron Meulman, the agency could still select a single booster at any time. A Saturday test of Orbital's Ground-based Midcourse Defense Boost Vehicle was nearly perfect, according to military and industry officials here, and Meulman said his company's version is now under pressure to produce similar results.
"I think bottom line, [Missile Defense Agency Director] Gen. [Ronald] Kadish is going to go with reliability," Meulman said.
Both Meulman and Orbital propulsion engineer Matt Steele, though, said they were not surprised by Holly's comments yesterday morning and that there are no significant problems inherent in maintaining both boosters in the program over the long term.