Defense funding cuts may be just the beginning

Pentagon sources and budget analysts said Monday that funding reductions for major weapons systems proposed in the Pentagon's $419 billion fiscal 2006 budget request are only the tip of the iceberg.

Robert Work, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said the Defense Department's request and its proposed funding cuts in major weapons systems -- the Air Force's F/A-22 and C-130J cargo plane, as well as several Navy shipbuilding programs -- is only a placeholder for the fiscal 2007 budget.

Next year's request, he added, will be the one that translates sweeping changes outlined in the Pentagon's forthcoming quadrennial defense strategy review, or QDR, into money. And it is in the QDR -- an in-depth look at U.S. military strategy, forces and policies -- that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's vision for transforming America's military from a Cold War force into one that can fight terrorists will be realized.

The president's 2006 budget halts production of the Air Force's F/A-22 program after 179 of 380 planes are built. It provides $4.3 billion for procurement of the new generation fighter. The shipbuilding budget would drop to $6.2 billion, a $3.4 billion decrease from 2005. The proposal calls for delaying construction of a new, nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the CVN-21, for three years.

After four years in the Bush Pentagon, Rumsfeld has a team in place to support his views, as well as three years of fighting the global war on terror under his belt. Combine these factors with an increasing deficit and the need for fiscal restraint, and Rumsfeld "could really effect change" in the 2005 QDR, Work said last week during a CSBA seminar on the 2006 budget.

Pentagon insiders say the QDR also is an opportunity for the military services to make their case against terminating or scaling back major weapons systems. The Pentagon threatened to cut funding for more than 30 of its major programs in the Dec. 23 draft budget document, a move that Work described as Rumsfeld's "shot across the bow" to the military service leaders. He asserted the QDR might be an opportunity for the services to defend some proposed acquisitions.

Pentagon insiders say Rumsfeld's intent is becoming increasingly clear. "The senior leadership is willing to make trades in capabilities and to accept some risk" in terms of foregoing continued investment in some major weapons programs, a senior Pentagon official said Friday. "So they made some judgments, and the QDR will be a chance to reassess those choices."

The services will not be alone in pleading their case. While Rumsfeld may have the power to override the uniformed and civilian leaders of the military services, he does not hold such influence over members of Congress. And given the major changes Rumsfeld appears to be proposing, he will have to consult with lawmakers to realize his vision.

Work said that for the first time ideas broached by the Pentagon in the QDR will have to be vetted with lawmakers. "You will see far more of this backdoor ... partnering," he said, adding "Congress will be very intimately involved in this QDR."