Intelligence analysis warns against rapid withdrawal from Iraq

Violence and sectarian killing is likely to worsen in Iraq over the next year as the country continues a gradual decline into fragmentation and chaos that could draw its neighbors into a larger regional war, according to a newly released collaborative analysis compiled by all 16 U.S. spy agencies.

The National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, released in a summary version Friday, identified certain political steps Iraqis could take to reverse the decline, such as major conciliations on the part of the Shia and Kurds toward the Sunni population, or stronger national leadership. But it said those are unlikely.

The 9-page declassified summary did not address President Bush's recently announced "surge" of additional troops to Baghdad, but it did say U.S. troops at current levels are the "essential stabilizing element in Iraq." It warned that rapid withdrawal would be disastrous for Iraq.

The report's authors said the scope and scale of the violence is not captured adequately by the term "civil war," though that term "accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict." The intelligence estimate identified a number of sparks that could inflame a much more rapid descent into chaos. These included mass sectarian killings, the killing of a prominent religious figure or a complete Sunni defection from the government.

Iraqi security forces are far from being capable of operating independently of U.S. troops, and the Iraqi army and police are havens of sectarian discord, the report stated. The security forces suffer from frequent desertions and equipment shortages, and if U.S. troops withdrew, the army and police would rapidly dissolve into militia factions, the analysis said.

For the past several months, the Government Accountability Office has sought access to Defense Department assessments on the readiness levels of Iraqi troops. Comptroller General David M. Walker said in mid-January that an agreement "in principle" had been reached with Defense to turn over the documents. But despite assurances they would be shared later in January, GAO has yet to see them, a spokesman said Wednesday.

The intelligence report warned against a rapid U.S. troop withdrawal, spelling out the consequences of such a move, including: intervention in Iraq's conflict by neighboring countries; massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement; al Qaeda in Iraq establishing a terrorist base in al-Anbar province; and Kurdish moves to seek greater political autonomy, which could prompt Turkey to launch a military intervention.

One passage contradicted recent statements by the Bush administration citing Iran as a leading cause of Iraq's worsening violence. The report says, "Iraq's neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq's internal sectarian dynamics."

The report said Iran does continue to provide support to Shia militias inside Iraq and that Syria provides safe haven for former Iraqi Baathists, Iraq's ruling party under Saddam Hussein.

The report also highlighted the increasingly regional nature of Iraq's conflict that has heightened tensions between Syria and Iran, and the predominantly Sunni Gulf states of Jordan and Egypt. It hinted that the Sunni Arab Gulf states are providing material support to Sunni insurgent groups inside Iraq; they continue to inflict the vast majority of American casualties.

In a lengthy introduction, the Director of National Intelligence described steps taken to improve the intelligence reporting process and to comply with legislation addressing problems associated with faulty information on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.

The intelligence community has formalized procedures to assess the credibility of sources used to develop crucial parts of the National Intelligence Estimate, authors said, and has added definitions of terms like "we judge" and likelihood estimates to assist in interpretation. Dissent among intelligence agencies has been given greater prominence, and significant dissenting views were highlighted, the authors said.