Petraeus says troop decreases could begin in weeks

The top American commander in Iraq on Monday told lawmakers that the recent surge strategy has demonstrated measurable success in defeating al Qaeda in Iraq and in reducing the levels of sectarian fighting. But he asked for six more months before beginning to withdraw significant numbers of American troops.

Speaking at a joint session of the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees, Army Gen. David Petraeus said that if progress continues, a drawdown in American troop levels can begin in the coming weeks with the removal of a Marine unit from western Iraq, followed by the departure of one Army brigade of about 4,000 soldiers in December.

But Petraeus said further reductions should await another assessment of Iraq's security situation. He displayed a chart that showed a gradual reduction over time in the number of American combat brigades from the current total of 20 to five. But the chart did not include dates of when such a substantial drawdown could be achieved.

Petraeus forecast a return to pre-surge troop levels of around 130,000 American troops in Iraq by July 2008.

Petraeus said success in Iraq will be "neither quick nor easy," but that American troops must continue to pursue the counterinsurgency strategy he put in place earlier this year that had as a priority protecting the Iraqi population and targeting al Qaeda in Iraq.

He said that a too-rapid withdrawal of American troops would lead to widespread "ethno-sectarian violence" that could reverse gains made over the last few months.

The commander showed a number of charts depicting declines in the number of attacks against coalition troops and Iraqi civilians. He said "security incidents" are at their lowest levels since June 2006. While civilian casualties from all causes in Iraq have declined about 45 percent since the height of sectarian violence in December 2006, and are 70 percent below those highs in the Baghdad area, they remain at "troubling levels," Petraeus testified.

With the military's strategy in Iraq shifting to emphasize protecting the populace, the count of civilian casualties has become a central measure of success. But some independent accounts dispute the military's claims of a dramatic decline in civilian deaths in recent weeks. According to a McClatchy News report over the weekend, citing sources in the Iraqi Interior Ministry, 1,980 Iraqis were killed in July and deaths in August climbed to 2,890. Petraeus did not indicate what methodology the military used to calculate civilian deaths, but said it was approved by two U.S. intelligence agencies.

For the Bush administration and supporters of the Iraq war, the biggest benefit of Petraeus' testimony could be to buy more time. Administration officials had been saying that lawmakers should wait for the findings of the Petraeus report before making any decisions as far as continuing to fund the war or pushing for troop withdrawals.

Speaking after Petraeus, American Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker said that Iraq came close to completely unraveling in 2006. But the situation has improved this year to the point that success there is "attainable," he said.

A number of times during his testimony, Petraeus pointed a finger at Iran for supporting armed groups and fomenting violence in Iraq. He said Iran is trying to create a "Hezbollah-like" militia force in Iraq to "fight a proxy war against the Iraqi state and coalition forces in Iraq."

Whatever the cause of the violence, it appears that the roots of opposition to the American presence in Iraq go deep. A BBC/ABC News poll of 2,000 Iraqis released Monday found that nearly 60 percent of those polled felt that attacks against American troops were justified.

The survey also found that 70 percent of Iraqis believed security has worsened in those areas where the surge has taken place. Seventy-nine percent of those polled opposed the presence of American troops in Iraq, 72 percent said the Americans' presence has made security worse and nearly half said American troops should "leave immediately."