Report warns new lethal small arms could get in terrorist hands

In the ongoing arms race between terrorists and security forces, the proliferation of next-generation, technologically advanced small arms with previously unheard-of range, accuracy and lethality could tip the balance in favor of terrorists, a new report warns.

New weapons such as simple mortars outfitted with guided warheads, precision sniper rifles, highly accurate anti-tank missiles and large magnetic mines that can be attached to ship bottoms are easier to use and more widely available on world markets. In the hands of terrorists, these weapons pose new challenges to personal security details, guards at critical sites and facilities, and cruise ships operators and passenger ferries, the report says.

These technologically enhanced small arms provide attackers with a single-shot kill capability, the element of surprise, the ability to launch attacks from far beyond established security perimeters and the means to escape after an attack, according to the report by RAND Corp. titled "Stealing the Sword: Limiting Terrorist Use of Advanced Conventional Weapons."

While the specter of anti-aircraft missiles shooting down airliners led to sales controls and technical countermeasures, the lethal new small arms have not come under comparable international regulatory controls and measures.

RAND identified five new or improved "game-changing weapons" that could shift the balance in favor of small groups of terrorists in the United States and other countries. The most worrisome weapons identified were advanced GPS-guided mortars.

Simple, often crudely constructed mortars were a favorite weapon of Irish Republican Army terrorists, and are used heavily now by insurgents in Iraq. RAND says the new guided warheads becoming available could provide terrorists with devastatingly accurate and lethal weapons that require little more than a firing tube. They can be fired remotely, and with known GPS coordinates, present a new security challenge.

The report laid out a hypothetical scenario where terrorists used a single mortar tube and precision rounds to attack the Rose Bowl football game in Pasadena, Calif. In the scenario, terrorists would have previously staked out the GPS coordinates for a section of the bleachers. In the middle of the football game, in a hidden canyon 10 kilometers away, they would then set up a mortar tube, fire off four GPS-guided rounds and drive off in a waiting van. Each round would drop 54 small grenades that would detonate in the air above the crowd, instantly killing dozens.

RAND says there is a narrow "window of opportunity" to control the proliferation of these types of weapons that may close within a few years, and recommended that the Department of Homeland Security take the lead in imposing sales and export controls on advanced mortar rounds. For example, the digital circuitry on GPS-equipped devices can be designed to require a "trusted component" that could limit where the weapons could be used, or they could be given expiration dates, the report noted.

The report also identified four additional advanced weapons:

• Modern sniper technologies, such as night-vision scopes and inexpensive ballistic computers that account for wind and temperature changes, enable relatively unskilled shooters to hit a target more than a mile away. Many of these technologies are widely available on the open market.
• Next-generation small arms, including computer-controlled smart grenades that detonate above targets or around corners; armor-piercing bullets that can defeat any known body armor; and rifle-launched, thermobaric warheads that offer greatly enhanced firepower. A small group of attackers equipped with these weapons could readily overwhelm guards at critical facilities, such as nuclear power or chemical plants, according to the report.
• Cheap and easy-to-use long-range anti-tank weapons that can destroy almost any vehicle from up to two miles away; they can also destroy a speaking platform or small building.
• Large, limpet-type, magnetic mines can be attached to ship hulls and other platforms such as oil rigs by underwater swimmers. With a limpet mine, terrorists could circumvent cargo inspection for explosives and threaten cruise ships and ocean-going ferries.