Former commander in Iraq provides post-surge assessment

As the surge brigades return home from Iraq, U.S. efforts there must shift from battling terrorists and insurgent groups to providing jobs and economic opportunities for Iraq's impoverished residents while also improving national and local government, said Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, former coalition ground force commander, on Tuesday.

"Much work remains to be done in Iraq," he said, in what is widely viewed as a preview to next month's briefing by Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus. Political reconciliation between competing factions is vital to Iraq's future, and until then, there will not be a turnaround in Iraq's long-term prospects for stability. Odierno, who returned two weeks ago from Iraq, served for 15 months as second in command to Petraeus.

The situation in Iraq is now largely a communal civil war for power and resources, both between the minority Sunni and majority Shia populations and among competing Shia parties. Iraq's neighbors continue to meddle in the country's internal power struggles, he said, and no "blanket solutions" exist to resolve the country's many challenges. A reversal of progress in curbing violence could occur if the Iraqi people, particularly the Sunnis, lose confidence in Iraq's government and do not believe it is serving their interests.

Improving security in Iraq also depends on improving the ability of Iraq's army and police to conduct counterinsurgency operations without extensive U.S. military support. That effort continues to suffer from equipment shortfalls and too few competent junior officers. Iraq has begun an officer training academy, but it will take at least three years before new commanders emerge.

Odierno said Iran continues to train, fund and equip Shia armed groups inside Iraq, and Iranian "surrogates" constantly fire rockets into the Green Zone. Iran has "a huge role to play in Iraq as helpful partners." Odierno said the American military continues to find lots of armor-penetrating roadside bombs that commanders have said are built primarily in Iran. "Whether they're still shipping them in or they've been there a while, I can't tell you."

Shia leader Moqtada al Sadr is trying to refocus his movement from an armed militia to helping the poor Shia community have a role and a vote in Iraq's future, Odierno noted. Sadr declared a cease-fire last summer, largely credited as helping quell the country's sectarian violence. Odierno said the U.S. military continues to target rogue elements of the Shia militia, funded by Iran, that have broken away from Sadr's influence.

Odierno said he felt comfortable with the planned drawdown in U.S. troops to 15 brigades this summer, but then recommended a pause after that, until the situation can be further assessed: "I want to see what happens when we go to 15 brigades." He said Petraeus, who is to brief President Bush and Congress in April on conditions in Iraq, will provide another assessment in August or September that is likely to include recommendations on whether to continue reducing troops.

Commanders in Iraq are mindful that a new U.S. administration will take office early next year, said Odierno. While he refrained from providing the presidential hopefuls with suggestions on the way forward in Iraq, he said the next administration must determine what its goals are in that country, and then adjust military decisions and policy accordingly.

Future policy decisions also should be tied to the situation on the ground in Iraq, said Odierno, adding that it's important for the next administration to assess progress in reducing violence, building Iraq's security forces, providing jobs and economic development, and improving provincial and national governance.

He said the reduction in violence in Iraq came because extra troops provided by the surge enabled the military to eliminate a number of insurgent safe havens and sanctuaries established by al Qaeda and other armed groups in the rural terrain surrounding Baghdad. A change in tactics - which got American troops back out into the neighborhoods and walking foot patrols rather than driving around for a few hours and returning to heavily fortified bases -- was equally important, he said.

"Our mantra was 'protect the population, protect the citizens of Iraq.' " After eight months on the ground, the Iraqi people "knew who we were…. they knew the names of the sergeants in the neighborhoods, they knew the captains, the relationships that were built."

Odierno said an important, unanticipated aspect of the surge was that it gave more American units the opportunity to partner with Iraqi units in daily operations, which hastened improvements to Iraq's military. "That is the best way for us to improve their capacity."