Opinions divided over chances for final budget resolution

As Democratic budget leaders move toward a more crucial stage in negotiating a final budget resolution, opinions are mixed on their chances to pass a fiscal blueprint this year.

One former House Appropriations Committee staffer believes the spending panel will ultimately move forward with a "deeming resolution" which would by fiat establish the spending levels for the 12 annual appropriations bills.

"I do not think there is going to be a budget resolution," the former aide said Monday, adding that, once the committee is finished with a supplemental spending bill for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, appropriators would move forward with a deeming measure.

"The Appropriations Committee has to flesh out this war supplemental and that is consuming their time right now," the former staffer said. Without a speedy agreement on the resolution, "the easiest thing to do is what Congress has done in the past and that is to [pass] a deeming resolution."

The comments come as House Budget Chairman John John Spratt, D-S.C., and Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., have been working to negotiate a final budget blueprint.

The sticking point has centered on whether to offset a patch for the alternative minimum tax. The Blue Dog Coalition favored using the budget resolution to ensure that the AMT would be offset, most likely through reconciliation instructions.

That had posed a problem for the budget writers because Maine Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins have stated their opposition to including reconciliation instructions to offset an AMT patch. Without their support, Senate Democrats faced long odds in passing a final budget resolution.

But last week the Blue Dogs backed away from insisting on including the AMT offset. The Blue Dog's openness to negotiate on the issue has improved Congress' chances of passing a budget resolution, Craig Jennings, a federal fiscal policy analyst with OMB Watch, said.

"Early last week, I would have agreed" that a resolution was not in the offing, Jennings said Monday. "I think a budget resolution is a lot more likely given the Blue Dogs' signal that they are willing to forego" that offset.

Conrad and Spratt have been optimistic about the chances that a compromise can be reached. They are expected to provide some possible AMT offset alternatives for the Blue Dogs to consider as soon as today.

Failure to pass a budget resolution would not be disastrous, but might lead to criticism about how well the Democratic majority functions.

"Getting out a budget resolution is a signal that 'yes we can govern,'" Jennings said. "If they don't do that, that would be a black eye."