More troops for Afghanistan might not be possible anytime soon

New analysis of deployment data shows the Army is at or near capacity in its ability to deploy soldiers to Iraq and Afghanistan, Government Executive has learned. That doesn't bode well for Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top American and NATO commander in Afghanistan who reportedly is asking for as many as 40,000 additional troops.

While there has been much debate about the administration's strategy in Afghanistan and the merits of McChrystal's request for additional troops, far less attention has been paid to the issue of whether a substantial troop increase in the next few months is even possible. Judging by an assessment by the RAND Arroyo Center, a nonprofit, federally funded research center, the Army cannot supply significantly more soldiers to Afghanistan until the United States pulls far more troops out of Iraq, something that won't happen quickly.

"There's no additional slack to send more troops to Afghanistan without taking them [directly] from Iraq," said Timothy Muchmore, deputy director of the Army office supporting the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review. The Army QDR office sponsored the RAND research, which was briefed to senior Defense officials on Wednesday.

Officials at RAND declined to discuss the study until it is finished later this fall.

The study, based on information collected by the Defense Manpower Data Center, assesses whether the Army is providing the "maximum flow" of soldiers to operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The short answer is yes, according to a copy of the most recent briefing on the study, which was provided to Government Executive.

The analysis found that 68 percent of soldiers in the active Army have deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan at least once; 21 percent are new recruits and are slated to deploy to those combat zones; 3.5 percent are in jobs key to current operations but located in the United States; and 1.5 percent are deployed elsewhere overseas, including in South Korea, the Balkans and the Sinai.

That's 94 percent of the Army directly engaged in meeting national priorities -- in economic terms, that's full employment, according to notes accompanying the briefing slides. The remaining 6 percent are considered "friction" -- an economic term that refers to those in transition, and for which more detailed analysis is needed to determine why they haven't deployed.

"It is interesting to note that since 9/11, the Army has over 1 million troop years of deployment to [Iraq and Afghanistan] alone," according to the briefing. That's the equivalent of one soldier deployed for war for 365 days, a million times over.

That number could grow much higher. McChrystal's assessment of the situation in Afghanistan, which was leaked to the Washington Post in September, is dire. Without more troops, failure is likely, he said.

In a letter to President Obama last week, Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said, "I believe that you set the right goal when you called for the defeat of al Qaeida and for preventing their return to Afghanistan. I believe that General McChrystal has the right plan and is the right man for the job. And, I believe that we must give our commander in Afghanistan the resources and time he needs to successfully accomplish this task."

But Skelton also noted that Americans and Afghanis alike must see progress in 12 months, and he urged Obama to act expeditiously in providing McChrystal with the resources he requests.

But given the Army's current operational tempo, it's hard to see how a significant troop increase could occur much earlier than next spring without extending the tours of troops in Iraq beyond 12 months and moving some troops directly from Iraq to Afghanistan. Neither option is appealing to Army leaders because they would further stress an already stressed force. Defense Secretary Robert Gates publicly has urged against taking such measures, although in some cases the Army has in fact had to move troops directly from Iraq to Afghanistan without giving them time off or retraining them for the new mission.

"Most people are expecting that the increases in Afghanistan will parallel decreases in Iraq," Muchmore said. For every brigade that is pulled out of Iraq, the combat brigade previously slated to replace it would instead go to Afghanistan. The operating tempo stays high, but it doesn't get higher. As long as commanders in Iraq can effectively manage the drawdown there for another year -- something that is by no means certain -- the buildup in Afghanistan is feasible over time. But it doesn't allow for the quick surge of troops into Afghanistan that McChrystal indicated he would need.

"Literally 50 percent of all combat brigades available today are deployed, both active and reserve," said Muchmore. "We're one year on, one year off. There's no slack. Gen. McChrystal wants more folks, but there's nothing sitting in the Army's cupboard to do that."

The RAND briefing provides the analytical framework for understanding what most military officials have long understood intuitively: The Army is carrying the bulk of the load in the current wars. Although it has 39 percent of the active-duty forces, it has contributed 52 percent of the deployed forces to Iraq and Afghanistan.

What's more, it has done so with a smaller percentage of troops in supporting infrastructure positions than any of the other services. The Navy, which has been deploying forces regularly for six decades, has a forces-to-infrastructure ratio of 55 percent to 45 percent. In the Army, that ratio is 71 percent to 29 percent. To many in the Army, that's another indicator that the service is out of balance. For one thing, it means there are far fewer job assignments where soldiers who have experienced multiple deployments can expect to spend a year or two at home with their families.

Numerous indicators of stress, such as rates of suicide, divorce and spousal and child abuse, are rising and suggest the Army could be reaching a breaking point. Army leaders are proud of the fact that the service recruits from the top 30 percent of American youth as measured by fitness, health, discipline and education. Yet, "That top 30 percent is committing suicide at a rate above the national average," Muchmore noted. "The numbers just keep going up and up. To me, it seems like the cumulative effects of multiple long deployments."