Census Chief Defends Sampling

Census Bureau director Martha Farnsworth Riche defended her agency's plan to use controversial sampling techniques Tuesday, saying they are the only way to ensure the accuracy of the 2000 census.

"We want to use sampling to eliminate the nagging and perpetual, persistent undercounting," she said at National Journal Inc.'s weekly roundtable. "We want to make the census clear and accurate rather than mostly accurate."

The Census Bureau estimates that in the 1990 census 4 million people were not counted. Of those missed, 52 percent were children. About 12.2 percent of Native Americans were missed, as were an estimated 5 percent of Hispanics and 4.4 percent of African Americans.

In 2000, the Census Bureau will try to remedy that problem by counting 90 percent of the poulation by mail or in person, then relying on statistical samples to complete an estimate of the country's population.

Opponents of sampling contend the process opens the door for tampering with numbers--and thus the apportionment of members of the House of Representatives. Others argue that sampling will be less accurate and is unconstitutional, since the Constitution mandates an "actual enumeration" of the country's population.

Riche said these beliefs "reflect a misunderstanding of the way the census is conducted now." The current method, she said, is "far more vulnerable to tampering."

In past censuses, Riche said, most counting was not complete when the final deadline arrived. So local census managers would choose which neighborhoods to focus on in an effort to finish on time. "Under the plan that we've developed," she said, "a computer will determine which addresses census takers go to. It won't be up to the preferences of the local manager."

Sampling will also help cut the cost of the census from about $4.8 billion to $4 billion, Riche said. The bureau will hire about 300,000 temporary workers to conduct the census, 4,000 of whom will be former welfare recipients. "We've got a lot of work coming up in 1998 and 1999," Riche said.

While sampling is at the heart of the congressional debate, one of the most emotional census issues is whether to add a "multi-racial" category to the census form.

Riche said such a category would be too confusing. "There are people, for instance, who say, 'My mother is Jewish, my father isn't, so I guess I'm multi-racial,' and this isn't really what we're looking for," she said. The Office of Management and Budget is currently considering a proposal that would give people the option of checking more than one racial category.

Riche said her ultimate goal is to make the 2000 census people-friendly. For the first time, census questionnaires will be available in public places and a toll-free number will be set up for people to report their answers.

"I have one goal beyond accuracy," Riche said. "That is that on April 1 Americans go to their mailbox, open the box and say, 'Yes! The census is here.' "