The budget process has been frustrating House and Senate Republicans since they took control of Congress in 1994. Many of the tactics the GOP has tried in battles with the White House have failed miserably, largely because they were based on a thorough misunderstanding of budget politics.
The most infamous examples were in 1995 and 1996, when the Republican majority tried (and failed) to use government shutdowns to put pressure on the president. At the same time, Republicans also tried (and failed again) to use legislation to increase the federal debt ceiling in hopes of gaining an advantage over the White House. Then later in 1996, and again in 1998, Congress proved unable (or unwilling) to pass the appropriations for fiscal 1997 and 1999. Both times, this inaction resulted in omnibus bills that brought big gains for the Clinton Administration.
To be fair, the misunderstandings that misguided GOP efforts were the result of budget process myths developed over the course of years. Unfortunately for Republicans, these assumptions had never really been tested. For example, the debt ceiling had always been thought of as legislation that Congress would never fail to approve nor the president to sign when it was really needed. In fact, when the Republicans tried to use this "rule" to their advantage, it turned out not to be true after all.
Lott, Learning From Experience?
All of this is important today because of four memos Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., sent to his Republican Senate colleagues in late December, outlining possible budget process changes. In effect, Lott said he had learned his lesson and nothing could be accomplished on the budget without the president's agreement.
Although the memos dealt with possible changes in four different areas-revising the pay-as-you-go rules to make tax cuts easier, changing the emergency spending rules to make increases over the caps harder, automatic continuing resolutions to make shutdowns less likely and limits on authorizations in appropriations bills-they all had the same basic conclusion: The president has the upper hand and congressional Republicans do not have the votes to neutralize that advantage.
Republicans may change congressional rules, Lott said, but those changes would not apply to the statutory budget process requirements that guide the president. In effect, Lott was telling his colleagues that this year's budget process results would not be different from those of the past few years unless they adopted a new attitude.
The Lott memos were a message to Senate Republican hard liners that the GOP cannot do the budget process equivalent of threatening to hold their breath until they turn blue. They may have a majority in both houses, but not a veto-proof one. To the contrary, the election-narrowed GOP margin in the House, combined with the partisan atmosphere caused by the impeachment proceedings and the existing budget procedures, makes some accommodations with the president necessary.
A few statutory changes could make a big difference. For example, the situation would change substantially if the Budget Enforcement Act was revised to allow a consolidated budget surplus to be used for a tax cut. That would prevent a pay-as-you-go sequester and the charge that Medicare was being reduced to pay for a tax cut. But statutory changes require either a presidential signature or a two-thirds majority in both houses, and neither is likely in the current political environment.
What it boils down to is this: While Majority Leader Lott was technically outlining various procedural alternatives, he was actually telling his colleagues that process revisions are not the answer. Republicans are going to have to adjust their approach to working with the White House to avoid the budget mistakes and missteps of the past.
Question Of The Week
Last Week's Question. This was an easy question of the week for the budget wonks among us. Everyone who answered correctly not only knew that the primary budget law prior to the Congressional Budget Act was the Budget and Accounting Act, but also knew that it was adopted in 1921. The winner, who was chosen in a random drawing from the correct responses, was Joel Packer of the National Education Association. Joel will get an all-new "I Won A 1999 Budget Battle" T-shirt to wear under his sweater while shoveling snow this winter.
This Week's Question. The Clinton fiscal 2000 budget currently is scheduled to be sent to Capitol Hill on Monday, Feb. 1. The question: What color will its cover be? Your answer should be as specific as possible (i.e. "blue marble" would have been a more correct answer than "blue" if the question had been asked about the fiscal 1999 budget). Send your answer to scollender@njdc.com by close of business Jan. 15, 1999, and you too might win an "I Won A 1999 Budget Battle" T-shirt.
Want Even More Information About The Fiscal 2000 Budget Debate?
Click here for details about "As The Budget Turns," a half-day executive briefing on Feb. 10 in Washington, D.C., conducted by "Budget Battles" author Stan Collender and sponsored jointly by the National Journal Group and Fleishman-Hillard. Sign up by Jan. 15 and get $75 off the regular price!
NEXT STORY: Feds say they'll meet energy efficiency goals