Although anxiety is mounting across the nation about the potential fallout from the year 2000 computer problem, it is unlikely there will significant blackouts in any crucial industrial sector, according to the nation's top federal overseer of efforts to make U.S. computers Y2K-compliant.
"I do not think there will be any major failures in any of the critical infrastructure," John Koskinen, chairman of President Clinton's Council on Y2K Conversion, said in an interview with CongressDaily. "There's no evidence there will be failures, except at the local level."
Koskinen also described major new strides by the federal government to address the problem, saying that by late spring, more than 90 percent of mission-critical systems in all agencies will be Y2K-ready.
This will be "to the surprise of some in Congress" who have been critical of the federal effort so far, Koskinen predicted. He noted that the federal government has pulled ahead of a number of industries.
"Whatever problems the economy will have, it will not be due to the federal system," Koskinen declared.
Some agencies, including the Small Business Administration, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Social Security Administration, are completely ready or nearly so, and a number of other agencies will be Y2K-compliant during "the next month or two," Koskinen said.
But in sketching a sanguine view of the federal effort, Koskinen acknowledged that several agencies will not be finished correcting their systems by the March 31 deadline the government set for itself.
Still lagging are the Defense, Energy, State, HHS and Transportation departments. "They've made significant progress, though there's still a lot of work to do," Koskinen said.
An OMB report scheduled for release in mid-March is likely to show that each of the agencies will have fixed more than 70 percent of their mission critical systems, according to Koskinen. And by the end of March, the proportion of mission-critical systems ready to go should rise to about 80-85 percent.
With the outlook good for key industrial sectors, including the nation's power grid, federal concern has shifted to difficulties that may be experienced at the local level. "We are continuing to focus on the fact that some cities, towns and counties and some small to medium companies" may have outages, Koskinen said.
And a few private sectors, such as telecommunications companies and hospitals, remain sources of worry, he said.
Trade with most countries that have modern economies should proceed smoothly after the new year, according to Koskinen, although he noted there is uncertainty about economically ravaged Southeast Asia.
But Koskinen said he was "very concerned" about Y2K effects in developing countries, some of which have "yet to begin" addressing the Y2K problem. Of particular concern to the United States, he said, are U.S. trading partners in Latin America, some of which are "moving slowly" on the problem.
Similarly, there is consternation about the Y2K effect on international shipping and the often complex routine for moving supplies around the globe.
In another critical area, Defense Secretary Cohen has been paying close attention to the prospect that the Y2K problem could affect Russia's early warning system for detecting U.S. missile launches.
Of the prospect for an inadvertent launch of Russian missiles, Koskinen said, "That won't happen."
But he indicated there was sufficient concern that there are discussions under way with the Russians about placing U.S. officials at Russia's command and control centers on New Year's Eve, and putting Russians at U.S. sites, as a way of reassuring each side in case something goes wrong.
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