With virtually everyone either involved or watching the fiscal 2000 budget debate now agreeing that it is highly unlikely to produce much of anything, it is not a bad time to ask whether next year will be any different.
The answer is probably, and perhaps almost certainly, no.
All of the elements that have combined this year to make it impossible for a meaningful debate with an intentional outcome to occur will continue to exist. Republicans will still have a narrow majority in both houses, the economy is expected to continue to thrive without intervention from Washington, and there will still be no consensus whatsoever about what to do with the surplus.
And if that was not enough, each new factor that will exist next year falls into the category of "Things that will make the budget debate even tougher."
The most important will be the 2000 election, which will be only 10 months away when President Clinton sends his budget to Congress. Will Democrats want to give the Republicans a victory on spending and taxing that close to Election Day? Will Republicans want to give the Clinton/Gore administration a chance to take credit? Will Republicans want risk alienating the GOP base (as they did just before the 1998 election) by compromising with a president that base so despises-and therefore risk having the most devoted conservative voters take a walk in 2000? Will either party want to risk making the wrong choice on the economy and be blamed for higher interest rates as people go to the polls in November?
Will the campaign rhetoric on the budget, taxes, spending and the economy allow any type of rational debate?
Almost as important will be the fact that President Clinton most likely will be even less willing to compromise on budget matters. Most presidents see their final budget as a key part their legacy; that budget usually is more of a statement than a plan they actually expect to be adopted or even taken seriously by Congress. This often makes that budget more extreme, and makes an accommodation harder to reach.
In addition, by its last year an administration often simply has run out of new ideas. Most of the original staff has left, and the policy flames that burned so brightly when the president first came to the White House have died down considerably. The fire that was so strong in everyone's belly a few years earlier has often waned as well. If this is true of the Clinton administration, it means that the fiscal 2001 budget will likely include many of the same proposals that have been rejected one or more times since 1993. And those proposals will be no more pleasing next year to what will likely be a hostile Congress than they have been in the past.
Finally, the fiscal 2001 caps on appropriations will be even tighter than the fiscal 2000 caps that have tied Congress in knots all year long.
How could this change? A worsening economic outlook could force Congress and the president to agree on something next year. In fact, the House, Senate, White House, Republicans and Democrats might all rush to a compromise tax cut, spending increase or some combination of the two if that is what is generally assumed the economy needs.
Or, President Clinton could decide that the best way to leave a positive legacy will be to show that he can get a grand compromise enacted in his final year in office -- one that includes tax cuts, Social Security and Medicare reform.
Or, a disastrous end of the fiscal 2000 budget debate that includes a government shutdown or two could convince House and Senate Republicans that they have to compromise with the president to convince voters they really can make the congressional railroad run on time (and so should continue to be elected).
It should be noted, however, that next year the economy is widely expected to be strong. There is so little consensus about how to reform taxes, Social Security, and Medicare that the possibility of a grand compromise in the few months before the election would be small, even if everyone wanted one. And the most likely response to a disastrous end of the fiscal 2000 debate is finger pointing, not a sudden desire to cooperate.
In other words, next year's budget debate really looks like much more of the same.
Fiscal 2000 Countdown
Not including Saturday or Sundays, as of today there are a mere 10 potential legislative days before the start of fiscal 2000. If Congress decides to work on one or more weekends as it often does this time of the year, there are still only 14 potential legislative days before most federal agencies turn into a pumpkin and shut down.
Question Of The Week
Last Week's Question. How many continuing resolutions can be enacted? The answers were all over the place. Many readers thought that the maximum is 365 under the assumption that only one can be enacted each day. The truth, however, is that CRs can last for any period, such as only for a few hours. Therefore, the correct answer is that the number of continuing resolutions that can be enacted in any year is literally unlimited. The "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt goes to Robert Scudo, who works in the Joint Electronic Commerce Program Office at Fort Belvoir, Va., and who was selected at random from the correct responses.
This Week's Question. This week's Budget Battles talks about the fiscal 2001 budget as being President Clinton's last. What is the law when it comes to the last budget of one president and the first budget of the next? Send your response to scollender@njdc.com and you could win an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt to wear while driving in the heavier post-Labor Day traffic on your way to work.
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