Few things are ever certain in U.S. politics. But it is safe to say (and no great revelation at this point) that President Clinton will almost certainly veto the tax bill Congress passed before the start of the summer recess as soon as it is actually sent to the White House.
The Republican plan to sell the bill to the country during the recess has failed. The most recent polls show that the skepticism and opposition that existed before the August-Labor Day recess centered on the need for a tax cut in general, and this view in particular has barely changed. Some polls show that the overall question of tax cuts is still far down the list of issues identified as most important.
The question is what will Congress do now.
For a number of reasons, it makes little sense to try and override the veto.
First, the votes to override do not exist so the effort is guaranteed to fail. If it fails as badly as many think it will, this will create some question as to the leadership's ability to count votes.
Second, as much as some in the leadership might like to reinforce the fact that the GOP is the party of tax cuts by forcing Democrats to go on record preventing the override, the polling results show conclusively that, in spite of more than a month of extensive public relations efforts, this still is not an issue that resonates with many voters. It is not clear, therefore, that another vote will accomplish much politically. It could actually be harmful to Republicans if it shows them harping on an issue that voters consider secondary. And the damage could even multiply if the override effort provides Democrats with a way to show that they are doing what their constituents want.
Third and most important, a tax bill veto override effort will take precious time and political energy away from what should be the highest priority for Congress in the very few days left before the start of fiscal 2000-getting the appropriations enacted before "government shutdown" becomes a commonly used phrase and something that is perceived as a real possibility.
This is absolutely critical. The first of this year's two Republican budget priorities-the tax cut bill-must give way to the second-preventing a shutdown. At this very late point in the year, anything that detracts from preventing a government shutdown-even trying everything possible to get a tax bill enacted-could be political suicide.
Under these circumstances, Congress' best course of action will be to do nothing about the inevitable veto of the tax bill (other than the usual press events denouncing the president's action) until all fiscal 2000 appropriations have been enacted in some form and the possibility of a government shutdown is eliminated. Whether the funding is included in stand-alone appropriations bills, as part of an omnibus appropriation or in a continuing resolution makes little difference. The important thing is that the funding occurs.
The key will be for Republicans to show they have learned from what happened in 1995 and 1996, and can make the congressional railroad run on time. Any attempt to spend serious time on a tax cut bill override before the appropriations questions are answered will create (or, for some, reinforce) the impression that many Republicans have tried to lose since the last two shutdowns-that they are ideologues who cannot manage the country's business.
There are some who believe that the only way to get a tax cut enacted this year is to make it part of an appropriations package that gives the administration what it wants. This ignores the basic fact that enacting the appropriations and preventing a shutdown at this point is more important to congressional Republicans than it is to the White House; Congress has virtually no leverage to get what it wants. As a result, giving up on the tax bill, at least for now, is the far better choice.
Budget Battles Fiscal Y2K Countdown
Synchronize your watches, calendars, and computers. As of today there are a scant 17 legislative days-not including weekends or religious holidays-before the start of the new fiscal millennium.
Question Of The Week
Previous Question. The question from two weeks ago asked readers to recommend a real or fictional animal that should be the official mascot of the federal budget, and boy did we get responses. More responses, in fact, than for any previous question of the week. And for some reason, more than half of the answers were from military installations from around the world. The most popular responses were the ostrich, phoenix, chameleon, Dr. Seuss' Push-me-Pull-you, Wile E. Coyote and the Road Runner, and, of course, the pig. There were also a few very obscure suggestions, like the ant lion larvae. These and all of the other responses would have even made Noah proud.
The winner of an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt goes to Kathy Evans from Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio, for her suggestion that the Hydra be named as the official budget mascot. Why? According to Kathy, the Hydra (like the budget) was a many-headed monster that could not be slain until someone with the strength of Hercules came by. Kathy did not say, however, who will play the role of Hercules in this year's debate.
This Week's Question. Want an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt of your own to justify a bigger raise at your annual performance review? Just answer this question: How many continuing resolutions can be enacted each year? Send your response to scollender@njdc.com. The winner will be selected by random drawing from the correct responses that are received.
NEXT STORY: Just out: A CDC journal to die for