Budget Battles: What was Clinton thinking?

While there has been much talk about how this year's debate showed that congressional Republicans have changed their budget tune and tactics since the heady days of 1995-1996, there has been far less discussion about how much the White House has changed as well.

Few people, for example, have focused on what appeared to be some very close personal discussions and cooperation between President Clinton and House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., that took place toward the end of the negotiations.

But there are a variety of other questions about the White House that need to be asked in light of what ultimately took place this year on the budget:

• Why didn't the Clinton administration use its extraordinary advantages to gain the uncontested political victory over the Republican-controlled Congress that was obviously within its grasp?
• Why did the White House settle for a series of small wins on a few appropriations and allow GOP hill leaders to claim their own triumphs, when it was in a position to deny Congress any successes at all?
• Why didn't the administration spend more time and energy condemning Congress' extraordinary use of gimmicks, which were so excessive they could have easily become an issue unto themselves and an embarrassment for the leadership?

In addition, the Republicans did not have a telegenic spokesperson on budget issues to compete with the president. Hastert did not take as prominent a role as Newt Gingrich once did, and House Budget Committee Chairman John Kasich, R-Ohio, who earlier this year ran for president, was shut out of many of the leadership discussions when he returned.

Finally, remember that while the president only had to propose what he wanted to do on spending and taxes to meet this year's tough requirements of the various budget laws, congresssional Republicans had the much more difficult job of rounding up enough votes to actually pass the budget and appropriations bills.

All of this indicates that it should have been relatively easy for the White House to push Congress more than it did. What would have happened, for example, had the president made it clear that he would not sign more than one continuing resolution, or if he demanded something in return for signing each successive CR? What if the administration had forced a government shutdown as it did in 1995? What if the president had refused to go along with the budget gimmicks and made it even more difficult for the House and Senate to come up with appropriations bills? What if Clinton had simply said no to the across-the-board spending cuts that the leadership insisted on at the end of the negotiations because of their potential impact on education, the issue that has been so damaging to Republicans in recent years?

And what would have happened if the president had refused to participate in negotiations unless they took place at a summit, the precise forum the leadership was so desperate to avoid? Wouldn't that have been a demoralizing political loss for congressional Republicans before any substantive issues were even discussed?

One senior administration budget official told me last week that the president was simply far less engaged in the budget discussions this year than in the past and that Office of Management and Budget Director Jacob Lew was far less combative and partisan than many of his predecessors. Another said that the White House's budget goals were far more modest this year so, the administration saw small victories as meeting expectations. Another thought that even if Clinton won, he had little to gain from a bruising political fight on the budget because of the polling that has consistently shown voters not wanting Washington to do much for fear of harming the economy.

Congressional budget leaders seem similarly perplexed. While they all agree that they dodged a potentially fatal bullet this year and were just happy to be left standing when it was all over, they are not sure why the president did not take full advantage of the hand he was dealt at the beginning of the year and so are not sure whether they can survive again.

The reason for this anxiety, according to those I spoke to on Capitol Hill over the past two weeks, is that the president will have at least as much leverage during the fiscal 2001 debate. The Republican majority will be just as small; the Democratic minority will be just as unified; the potential uses for the surplus will be just as varied; the need for gimmicks will be just as great; and Congress' desire to complete work on the budget as quickly as possible will be even greater in the election year.

The question is whether the Clinton administration will be any more willing to take advantage of the potentially winning cards in its hand next year. If not, the budget will remain far difficult an issue than it might appear at first glance.

Only Two More Weeks To Cast Your Vote!

Votes for the winner of the 1999 Black Ink Award, which will be given by "Budget Battles" to the person or organization readers say has had the most positive impact on this year's budget debate must be received by Saturday, Dec. 14. So don't wait-click here to vote for your choice.

As selected by "Budget Battles" readers, the five nominees are (in alphabetical order): Rep. Tom Coburn, R-Okla.; the Congressional Budget Office; House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill.; Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan; and Rep. John Tanner, D-Tenn. Votes will only be accepted by e-mail and the winner will be announced in the last "Budget Battles" of the year. Only one vote will be accepted per person.

Question Of The Week

Last Week's Question. My thanks (and an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt) to long-time budget researcher/analyst/historian Bob Keith of the Congressional Research Service for his help with the answer to last week's question. What is the highest number of stopgap funding bills enacted in any fiscal year? The answer is 14, as part of the fiscal 1996 budget process. The winner of a T-shirt is Lynn Brown, deputy director of the Food and Drug Administration's Division of Employee and Labor Management Relations, who was selected at random from the correct responses. FYI, Bob tells me that this year's seven bills is the record number of actual continuing resolutions. The fiscal 1996 record of 14 was reached with a combination of CRs and other legislation that continued funding without technically being CRs.

This Week's Question. It is time to start thinking seriously about Christmas. That includes the holiday music that already seems to be playing on every radio station. The question: If there was a holiday song with a federal budget name (how about "Rudolph the Red-Ink-Nosed Reindeer?"), what would it be? Send your entry to scollender@njdc.com and you might find an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt in your stocking this year.