Budget panel projects bleak spending outlook next year

The dust may have only just settled on the fiscal 2000 appropriations process, but budget writers already are tallying up the effect on next year's budget of the various maneuvers Congress used this year to keep total discretionary spending within statutory caps.

In its final "Budget Bulletin" of the year, the Senate Budget Committee used the latest Congressional Budget Office numbers to outline just how difficult the FY2001 appropriations cycle is likely to be-and to suggest adjusting the FY2001 caps in next year's budget resolution.

According to the CBO, the discretionary budget authority cap for FY2000 was almost $578 billion. But that figure includes $18 billion in one-time expenses such as the 2000 census, leaving the FY2000 limit for ongoing expenses at $560 billion. In comparison, CBO estimates the FY2001 budget authority cap is nearly $542 billion-or $18 billion less than Congress appropriated for the current fiscal year.

However, the $560 billion figure includes more than $31 billion in emergency FY2000 budget authority-which does not count against the caps, but does affect the size of the budget surplus or deficit.

To keep to the FY2001 budget cap of $542 billion, Congress would have to cut discretionary spending by 3.2 percent from the FY2000 level of $560 billion. But the Senate Budget Committee points out that Congress already has advance appropriated $23 billion in spending for FY2001, thereby leaving only $519 billion in budget authority under the cap.

For that reason, the committee states that "the severe constraints that Congress will inevitably face in trying to complete the 2001 appropriations bill starkly underscores the need to consider modifying the statutory limits on discretionary spending. If the President does not propose to raise the caps in his 2001 budget submission, the Bulletin believes that the FY2001 budget resolution may be the appropriate vehicle in which to do so."