If anything big is going to happen on the budget this year, it will probably have to happen before the start of the summer recess rather than afterward.
As the year starts, the White House is likely to continue to display a far more accommodating attitude toward Congress on budget matters that it adopted last year. With all of the president's senior budget and economic advisors in place as the fiscal 2001 budget debate begins, the same team that led the administration away from confrontation on spending and taxes will be in a position to do so for a while longer.
In addition, for legacy reasons the president may want to get a variety of legislative projects enacted and that will require working with rather than against the House and Senate.
But at some point in the year, the administration is far more likely to see its political vindication tied firmly to whether President Clinton is succeeded by a Democrat and whether Democrats retake control of one or both houses of Congress. This will especially be true if Gore is the Democratic presidential candidate. No matter how hard the vice president may try to distance himself from the current White House during the campaign, his election will be viewed by many as a desire by voters to continue some of Clinton's policies.
This indicates that relatively early in the year the cooperation between the president and Congress on budget matters will simply stop and big deals on spending and taxes will no longer be possible.
This change is likely to happen no later than August, after the Democratic convention produces its candidates and the campaign takes center stage from whatever legislative initiatives may still be pending.
But it could happen much, much earlier. If either Vice President Gore or former Sen. Bill Bradley emerge from the early primaries as the presumptive Democratic nominee, any type of cooperative effort between the White House and Congress on the budget could end literally overnight as the returns are being reported.
Two other things make this even more probable.
First, congressional Democrats are likely to be far less interested in any type of big deal on the budget, taxes and spending if it means that their Republican colleagues will be able to take credit for getting something done in the months just before the 2000 election.
Second, nothing substantial really needs to be done on the budget this year. The fact that there will be a projected surplus instead of a deficit means that, once again, doing nothing becomes an acceptable alternative (See "A Seinfeld Budget," Nov. 24, 1999).
In addition, this year's budget debate will at least start with the U.S. economy in great shape. The major stock markets in this country are at record levels, unemployment is at its lowest level in a generation, GDP is about to hit a record number of months of continuous growth, and the old theory that said this should all result in soaring inflation is being proved wrong almost daily.
If that is not enough, the 2000 census was funded last year, Y2K corrections were previously paid for, neither Medicare nor Social Security will go belly up in the next 11 months, and, at least for the time being, the world is at relative peace.
With presidential nominees almost certain to be decided by March 14, and the Clinton budget scheduled to be sent to Capitol Hill on February 7, this could make the fiscal 2001 federal budget debate the shortest in U.S. history. It also means that, if they really want something to happen, the congressional leadership might want to start working on a budget agreement before the Clinton budget is delivered.
Question Of The Week
Let's start the new calendar year off by wiping the slate clean as far as the "Blum Rule" is concerned. Even if you won an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt within the last six months, you are eligible to win again starting now.
This Week's Question. All it takes to win one of the all new "I Won A 2000 Budget Battle" T-shirts in their new color (blue) is a little research-or perhaps a lucky guess. The question: In percentage terms, which of the major federal cabinet departments got the biggest increase in their appropriation from fiscal 1999 to 2000? Tiebreaker: If there is more than one correct answer, the winner will be chosen by the person whose guess is closest to the actual percentage increase, so be sure to include both an agency and a percentage. Send your answer to scollender@njdc.com by 5 p.m. on Jan. 9, 2000.
NEXT STORY: Clinton makes fiscal 2001 budget decisions