Agencies face executive succession planning problem

Almost three-quarters of the government's top executives will be eligible for retirement in the next five years, but many agencies won't be prepared to replace them, according to a recent report prepared by the General Accounting Office.

Following a request by House Government Reform Civil Service Subcommittee Chairman Joe Scarborough, R-Fla., GAO examined both early and regular retirement trends among the government's Senior Executive Service workforce through the year 2005.

"The career SES retirement trends projected through fiscal year 2005 show that about 20 percent more career SES members will be eligible to retire by that date than were eligible to retire as of the end of fiscal year 1998," GAO reported in "Senior Executive Service: Retirement Trends Underscore the Importance of Succession Planning" (GGD-00-113BR).

While GAO didn't survey agencies to see what they've done about this looming labor flight, previous studies and anecdotal evidence suggest that the answer is not encouraging. For example, more than half of the respondents to a 1999 Senior Executives Association and Office of Personnel Management survey of the SES said that their agencies do not have a formal succession planning program. In addition, the National Academy of Public Administration reported in 1994 and 1997 that agencies weren't planning ahead to replace aging executives.

The Department of Veterans Affairs faces a huge wave of retirements in 2005, when 80 percent of its senior executive corps will be eligible to say goodbye to Uncle Sam. Feds who work in the criminal investigation field will also be retiring in record numbers, more than in any other occupational field that GAO investigated. Meanwhile, federal lawyers are in the prime of their careers and have the lowest retirement eligibility rate of any reviewed occupational series.

The Environmental Protection Agency and Nuclear Regulatory Commission don't have much to worry about yet. Both agencies have a 65 percent SES retirement eligibility rate, the lowest among the agencies GAO singled out.

The trends don't portend a crisis. In fact they're not too different from trends in the recent past. But they still underscore the need for advance planning, GAO said.

"We believe that placing appropriate emphasis and attention on SES succession planning will help agencies ensure that they have a well prepared, qualified, and diverse group of people available to fill career SES positions," GAO said. Since all the evidence indicates that agencies are lacking foresight in succession planning, GAO recommended that OPM take a stronger leadership role in this effort.

OPM said it has always been available to help agencies plan for the future, particularly since 1995, when the agency published an executive succession planning tool kit (Available from OPM's Office of Executive Resources Management at SESdata@opm.gov). Still, OPM could and should do more, GAO said. "Our point is that OPM should take a systematic and proactive approach to determining whether or not agencies are doing effective succession planning," the report said.

OPM officials said they are developing a data-driven workforce planning model that will be available to agencies next year to help with strategic planning, including executive workforce succession.

SES retirement eligibility rates for fiscal 2005 for select agencies:

Source: GAO