Budget Battles: The Clinton legacy, part two

This week's "Budget Battles" continues where last week's column left off by looking at the spending and revenue changes that have occurred during the Clinton administration.

This is not as easy as it seems. Although the numbers are certainly available, the question is to what does one compare them. And that puzzle prompts an entire set of analytical issues that must be dealt with before any conclusions can be reached.

The original plan was to compare the Clinton budget results to the results of the previous seven presidents, starting with the Kennedy administration. But because each of these presidencies lasted for different periods, simply looking at spending and revenue changes from the beginning to the end makes shorter administrations look better than Ronald Reagan's or Bill Clinton's, each of which lasted for two full terms.

The solution is to look at the average growth in spending and revenues per year of each administration. Although this masks big changes in any one year, it is the fairest way to compare the overall results of one presidency to another.

To make this even fairer, constant instead of nominal dollars should be used to eliminate any bias caused by inflation. In addition, recent changes in the budget presentation (a program that was made on-budget or off-budget, for example) need to be carried back to the previous years so that the results are as comparable as possible.

Average Annual Increases in Spending
(in billions of constant dollars)

On this basis, the table above shows that the Clinton administration will be decidedly in the middle of the pack and at the same place as one Republican fiscal conservative when it comes to average annual spending increases. In constant dollars, outlays look like they will increase by about $17.5 billion a year while Clinton is in the White House, the same rate as during Gerald Ford's administration. Three presidents (Reagan, Jimmy Carter and Lyndon Johnson) had spending increase each year by much more than Clinton. Three others (George Bush, Richard Nixon, and John F. Kennedy) saw spending increase by much less.

The picture is quite different when it comes to revenues. The average annual growth in revenues while Clinton is in the White House puts his administration at the very top of the list. Again using constant dollars, the table below shows that revenues look like they will grow by almost $66 billion a year during the Clinton administration. This is more than twice the growth rate that occurred in both the Reagan and Carter years. It is also 62 percent more than the next highest growth rate, which occurred while Johnson was in the White House.

Average Annual Increases in Revenues
(in billions of constant dollars)

As many "Budget Battles" readers pointed out in response to last week's column, numerical comparisons do not tell the whole story. In this case, for example, the extraordinary economic growth that has occurred during the past seven-plus years must be given credit for at least some of the limits on spending and increases in revenues that occurred. In fact, there have been few legislated tax increases during the Clinton era, so it is hard to say his administration raised taxes by this much. Similarly, the caps on discretionary spending enacted before the Clinton administration began that were generally complied with until last year must be at least part of the reason that spending did not grow that fast.

But that is the topic for next week: Giving Credit.

Question Of The Week

Last Week's Question. What should a summer blockbuster movie or novel be called? No one suggested "Red Ink Rising," so I guess it is safe to say that the federal deficit is clearly out of sight and out of mind for most budget watchers. As promised, there were two winners of the much sought-after "I Won A Budget battle" T-shirts. Robert Torres of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management wins for "Mission: Almost Impossible FY00," and Hayden Milberg, legislative director for Rep. Tom Latham, R-Iowa, wins for "Bill (Clinton) and Ted's (Stevens) Excellent Adventure."

This Week's Question. The official start of summer is only a few weeks away, so there's no better time to get an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt of your own. And this week it is easy. In the spirit of the three Legacy columns, all you have to do is come up a sound bite that a historian might use to describe the Clinton years from a budget perspective. For those of you not familiar with sound bites, think "Senator, you're no John Kennedy," or "Read my lips, no new taxes," or "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Send your response to scollender@nationaljournal.com by 5 p.m. EDT on Saturday, June 10. Please include your address so that we can send you your T-shirt if you win.