Budget Battles: Time's running out

Forget about any revised surplus estimates, updated economic forecasts, or new short- or long-term projections you see or hear about in the next few days. The number that really matters at this point in the budget debate is that there are only 18 potential legislative days left before the start of fiscal 2001. The actual number of potential legislative days left this year before the start of the next fiscal year is somewhere between 10.5 and 18.

And that may overstate the amount of time that is actually available to do legislative work. Two of those potential legislative days are Mondays before primaries in September, and Congress typically does not take votes on such days so that representatives and senators running for re-election can be back home campaigning. These two primaries may also stop Congress from taking votes until late the following day so that members have time to get back to Washington and the two parties are at full strength. This will be especially important in a year like this when narrow majorities in both houses will mean that every vote is important.

Five other potential legislative days are other Mondays and Fridays. Although Congress typically works at the beginning and end of the week in September, in election years like this one (when control of at least the House seems to be up for grabs), there will clearly be some who will see leaving Washington early to campaign as being more important than staying around to vote. Given the narrow majorities in both houses, a handful of defections late in the week could cause the leadership to abandon any plans to continue working on legislation.

Finally, what appears to be the last full day of work before the start of fiscal 2001 -September 28- may not be. Rosh Hashana starts on the 29th and congressional leaders may have to stop votes early in the afternoon the day before so that Jewish members of Congress can return home.

Therefore, the actual number of potential days left this year before the start of the next fiscal year is somewhere between 10.5 and 18.

This means the following:

1. As has been expected since the beginning of the year, the White House again holds most of the cards in what is left of the fiscal 2001 budget debate. President Clinton does not have to campaign for re-election this fall and so will be more than willing to keep Congress in session through October to work on spending and taxing legislation, especially if that means that Republicans will not be able to campaign against their Democratic challengers.
2. A continuing resolution is not just likely, it is virtually guaranteed. Only one of the 13 fiscal 2001 appropriations has been enacted so far and there is nowhere near enough time to complete the rest.
3. The combination of the two realities above means that presidential vetoes of fiscal 2001 appropriations will be much more problematic for Congress than the leadership currently is saying. Even if the administration eventually goes along with what Congress wants on individual bills, vetoes will put more overall pressure on the Republican majority because of the amount of additional time that will be needed to settle matters for the year.
4. More than one continuing resolution should be expected. The White House will have maximum leverage if Congress has to pass a series of short-term CRs through October rather than one long one. A series of CRs will also make it look like Washington is even more chaotic than usual and that will hurt Republican incumbents far more than Democratic challengers. (There are Democratic incumbents too, but being in the minority offers political cover.)
5. The White House is likely to get tougher this year than it has been in previous budget negotiations. Presenting Congress with demands that cannot be sold to the rank and file could make a partial government shutdown possible. That would be extremely damaging for Republicans who (1) do not want to remind voters about the two shutdowns in 1995-1996; (2) want to avoid the "do nothing" label; and (3) want to make a distinction between the current and past leadership.
6. The fiscal 2001 surplus will be lower than anyone is currently admitting. If history is any guide, negotiations with the White House will lead to increased demand from congressional Republicans for more spending for their favorite programs to go along with what the administration is requesting.
7. There is no time for budget process reform this year. Even if there were a consensus on what to do-and there definitely is not-the time needed to debate and pass a budget resolution would take too much away from everything else that has to get done.
8. Tax cuts are highly unlikely to be enacted this year. Not only does there not appear to be enough votes to override a veto, but there will be very little time left when Congress returns from its August-Labor Day recess even to try. There will be a maximum of 15 legislative days in September, and every one of those will have to be devoted to appropriations. It should not come as a surprise, therefore, if Republican leaders decide that they will be better off politically to simply wait until next year.

Question of the Week

Previous Question. "Budget Battles" readers are a sharp bunch, at least some of the time. The vast majority of readers who responded to last week's question knew that they were being asked a trick question. How many votes does it take to stop a filibuster in the Senate on a reconciliation bill? The answer is that a reconciliation bill cannot be filibustered because debate is limited to 20 hours. There are two winners of the much sought-after "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt. Congratulations to Barry Zulauf of the Drug Enforcement Administration and Kerry Weems of the Department of Health and Human Services. Both winners were selected at random from the large number of correct responses.

This Week's Question. The Congressional Budget Office was expected to release its economic and budget outlook Tuesday. Unless something very strange happens, its surplus estimates for fiscal 2001-2010 will be different, perhaps even very different, from those projected in June by the Office of Management and Budget in its mid-session review.The question: What is Congress required to do when CBO and OMB have different forecasts? Send your response to scollender@nationaljournal.com by 5 p.m. EDT on Saturday, July 22. Please include your address so we can mail you your shirt if you win. If there is more than one correct response, the winner will be selected at random from all of the correct entries.

Who Will Be The Budget Person Of The Year?

"Budget Battles" readers will soon be asked to nominate and vote for the person or organization who had the most positive impact on this year's budget debate with all nominations and votes happening online. Details to follow.