Colin Powell: A diplomat handy with a bayonet

Colin Powell has a quality that perhaps no other new Cabinet member can match. When he speaks as Secretary of State, he will instantly be heard. His status as an American icon and a former wartime leader virtually guarantees it. And that may be his greatest asset as he seeks to establish himself as President Bush's point man on American foreign policy.

After years of tension between the Clinton administration and Congress over foreign policy issues that only rarely captured the attention of the general public, Powell brings to Foggy Bottom not only a bully pulpit louder than anyone else's, but a treasure trove of political capital and close contacts on Capitol Hill gained from his years in the Pentagon. And Powell will need every kilowatt of his star power as he faces a series of difficult challenges abroad and an underfunded and somewhat demoralized State Department at home.

Max Kampelman, a vice chairman of the board of directors at the U.S. Institute of Peace and a former arms control negotiator in the Reagan Administration, said that Powell will have to forge a national consensus on America's international priorities. "That will require his working closely with Congress, so that lawmakers don't feel that they are only asked to participate in the crash landings of foreign affairs without being in on the takeoff. I also think Powell is admirably suited to that job. He's a harmonizer. He listens to people. And he has enormous respect both in Congress and with the American people."

There is little doubt that Powell is almost uniquely positioned to become the most influential voice in foreign affairs within the Bush Administration. In past Administrations, particularly strong or effective national security advisers or Defense Secretaries sometimes overshadowed their counterparts at the State Department, as was the case when Henry Kissinger was national security adviser in the Nixon Administration, or arguably when William Perry was Defense Secretary in the Clinton Administration. On the other hand, fierce competition over overlapping national security and foreign affairs issues between equally matched antagonists can prove distracting, as often occurred in the Reagan Administration between Secretary of State George Schultz and Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger.

Given his stature and popularity, however, Powell will almost certainly emerge as a "first among equals" within the Bush Cabinet. It also helps that he knows all the players intimately. Powell was the right-hand man of then-Defense Secretary Dick Cheney during the Persian Gulf War. Likewise, Powell is a longtime favorite of the elder Bush, and reportedly already has the ear of George W. Bush. Although Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld boasts his own impressive pedigree, he is not as close as Powell to a Bush clan that both demands and rewards longtime loyalty. Powell's experience as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Clinton and the elder Bush, and before that as national security adviser under President Reagan, give him an insight into the military dynamics of foreign policy not enjoyed by a Secretary of State since at least Gen. Alexander Haig (1981-82), and probably not since Gen. George Marshall (1947-49).

Indeed, some experts believe that Powell's greatest initial challenge will be to carve out an influential position on foreign affairs in a way that does not stir resentment or trample the turf of other officials, such as the U.S. Trade Representative, the national security adviser, or the Secretaries of Defense, Treasury, and Commerce. In his confirmation hearings, for instance, Powell said that trade and economics were no longer separable from U.S. foreign policy, and that he intended for the State Department to play a "very, very active role in international economic policy-making."

"Because of the force of his personality and his close ties to the President, Powell could become seen as the vicar in charge of all the crosscutting issues that play into foreign policy," said Anthony Lake, who was national security adviser in the Clinton Administration. "Or he could become like Henry Kissinger when he was Secretary of State, who acted much like a national security adviser but at the cost of bypassing much of the State Department bureaucracy. I think if he follows that course, however, Powell will confront great difficulty. No matter how strong he is as Secretary of State, the other agencies are not going to simply salute and follow his lead. Throwing his weight around like an 800-pound gorilla would be a prescription for interagency warfare."

Powell's first order of business is likely to be re-energizing a State Department that many experts see as starved for funds, badly in need of reform, and dispirited in recent years by security scandals, terrorist bombings, and frequent bashing by Congress. Although the State Department budget has increased a little in recent years, funding was slashed by 30 percent between 1991 and 1997. During that period, the department was forced to close a significant number of overseas posts precisely when many experts thought more were needed. Today, only one penny of every federal dollar goes to foreign policy.

Former Secretary of Defense Frank Carlucci is co-chairing a task force sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations that will soon release a report on the need for State Department reform. "Congress has starved the State Department for funds to the point that resources are totally inadequate. They've been closing posts when they should have been opening them, and the organizational structure of the Foreign Service system is dysfunctional," Carlucci said in an interview. "So the management challenges that Powell confronts run the entire gamut. Having said that, as a former senior military man, Powell has more managerial experience than most Secretaries of State, he has great interpersonal skills, and he knows how to motivate people and move them forward to achieve clear objectives. I think he's just what the State Department needs."

Already, Powell has signaled to Congress that he will forcefully seek increased funding for his department. "While the world has been growing more demanding and more complex, while more and more nations demand and need our attention, we have cut the number of people in the State Department, we have underfunded our facilities, we have neglected our infrastructure," Powell said during his confirmation hearings. "We need to do better."

So far, Powell is getting generally favorable reviews from within the Foreign Service bureaucracy. According to insiders, he has signaled an eagerness to slice away various layers of the State Department's infamous bureaucracy-especially concerning the proliferation of "special advisers" and emissaries for various regions and problems-and to keep to a minimum the endless meetings and accompanying memos that sprout like mushrooms in the fertile soil of Foggy Bottom.

Strobe Talbott, who just stepped down as deputy secretary of State, said that Powell has already "sent a very, very welcome and reassuring message to the foreign and civil service at the State Department, that he regards them as nonpartisan professionals, and plans to rely heavily on them. So I think he's brought a lot of talents to the transition, which has been absolutely textbook."

By far the most controversial aspect of Powell's accession to Secretary of State is his well-known "Powell Doctrine," which calls for maximum restraint in using the military when vital national interests are not at stake, but overwhelming force when they are. "Many of my generation [of Vietnam-era officers] vowed that when our turn came to call the shots, we would not quietly acquiesce in half-hearted warfare for half-baked reasons that the American people could not understand," Powell wrote in his autobiography.

Experts worry that if applied strictly, the Powell Doctrine can be used as an excuse to avoid virtually any military engagement, in an era where keeping the lid on regional conflicts often requires at least the threat of military force. They note that Powell himself had counseled against both the Persian Gulf War and becoming involved militarily in the Balkans.

Whether the Powell Doctrine will evolve and become more nuanced with its author sitting in the State Department remains to be seen. Certainly Powell's philosophy will be tested early. In the Middle East, Powell will confront an old nemesis in Saddam Hussein, and a Gulf War coalition that has been badly frayed by years of sanctions and a worsening crisis between Israel and the Palestinians. Bush's proposals to build a national missile defense and pull U.S. troops out of the Balkans will cause immediate trans-Atlantic tensions with NATO allies. A worsening crisis in Colombia is already testing the limits of U.S. military engagement in Latin America. In Eurasia, Powell will confront an ascendant China, a deteriorating Russia, and an uncertain situation on the Korean Peninsula.

"I think Powell is going to confront a world where the post-Cold War honeymoon is ending, and a lot of troublesome and unavoidable international problems are going to arise," said Brent Scowcroft, who was national security adviser in the elder Bush's Administration. "That's going to require someone with true leadership skills who can get people to follow him because they are convinced he has the right answers, and they want to join his team. Colin Powell has those kinds of leadership skills."