A civil servant with clout

Steve Goss is not a government decision-maker and policy boss. He controls no votes in Congress, writes no executive orders, and can order no changes in the program to which he devotes his professional life.

Yet Goss' opinions could have a big impact on one of President Bush's most ambitious campaign proposals: his plan to privatize part of Social Security.

Goss, 51, is the man in charge of the numbers, the chief actuary for the Social Security program. He will be a major player as the President and Congress consider how to keep the program solvent after 2037, when its surplus will disappear as baby boomers retire.

He won't write the laws, but he and his actuarial team give the lawmakers the crucial information they need to do so.

"We are very much by design not policy-makers. We try to inform policy-makers about the implications of potential policy," said Goss, who studied math and economics at the University of Pennsylvania, received a master's degree in math at the University of Virginia, and learned his actuarial skills during 27 years on the job at Social Security.

Goss' post is unlike the other positions highlighted on these pages, in that he's not a Bush appointee. But his expert opinions could end up helping -- or hurting -- the political prospects for any privatization efforts advanced by the Bush Administration.

Under a 1994 law making the Social Security Administration an independent agency, the chief actuary is appointed by the Social Security commissioner and can be removed only for cause. Outgoing Social Security Commissioner Kenneth Apfel appointed Goss on Jan. 3. Goss' predecessor as chief actuary, Harry Ballantyne, served for 18 years under three different Presidents.

Goss' job is to estimate how much money Social Security will take in from payroll taxes and from the interest on Social Security loans to the Treasury for the next 75 years, and how much it will spend on benefits under different economic scenarios.

The calculations could be particularly delicate because the volatile stock market has entered into the Social Security policy debate. Bush and many Republicans favor allowing workers to divert a portion of the existing payroll tax into private stock accounts, on the theory that they will provide a higher rate of return. Many Democrats call such "privatization" proposals too risky.

During early discussions held by a 1994-96 Social Security advisory committee that discussed privatization, Goss consulted analysts of long-term stock trends and determined that the after-inflation return on stocks has averaged 7 percent over the past century. He concluded that 7 percent would be an appropriate initial long-term assumption to calculate returns on a possible privatization plan.

In discussions since then, he said, "we've worked very closely with people who favor privatization and people who don't."

Gene Steuerle, an economist and Social Security expert at the Urban Institute, said that Goss won't be swayed by politics in making his assumptions. "Steve and the entire Office of the Actuary display the highest level of public service and nonpartisanship," Steuerle said. "They have tremendous influence."

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