Budget, appropriations agreements could be elusive

Less than a week into the new year, President Bush and Senate Majority Leader Thomas A. Daschle, D-S.D., were trading accusations over which party is responsible for the recession, the return of the federal budget deficit, and the failure of last year's economic stimulus talks. They set the tone for the budget brawl that will quickly escalate once Congress returns this week--and that will surely continue right up until Election Day.

Already, insiders are predicting that with each party controlling one house, the odds are good that Congress will fail to agree on a budget resolution this year.

"It's going to be a difficult year," said a senior Senate Republican aide. "There's a good chance we may not have a budget. It may be impossible."

In an election year, the aide noted, each party will be "seizing on the economy to find some political advantage."

Without a budget resolution, House and Senate appropriators will have to rely on informal guidance from congressional leaders in dividing up the spending pie. And looming large over any budget decisions is the federal deficit, which could reach $179 billion in fiscal 2002, if Social Security funds are excluded.

The two parties are blaming each other for the disappearance of the budget surplus: Democrats say that Bush's $1.35 trillion tax cut is the culprit. But the White House says that the deficit stems from the recession, which it says started before Bush took office, and from the war against terrorism. Moreover, the White House argues that any economic recovery can be attributed to the effect of last year's tax cuts in jump-starting the economy.

Bush is expected to send his budget request to Capitol Hill on Feb. 4. The President acknowledged on Jan. 7, the day that he returned to Washington from his Texas ranch, that it would not be a balanced budget. And Office of Management and Budget Director Mitch Daniels already has warned that federal programs not related to the war effort or to homeland security could be targeted for large cuts.

Of course, Congress may not be willing to make those cuts when appropriators begin working on their fiscal 2003 funding measures. Congress is likely to want to boost spending on defense and homeland security, as well as on its favorite programs and pork projects. At this point, it's hard to know how much lawmakers will want to spend and how willing Bush will be to use his veto pen.

Congress faces difficult budget decisions far earlier than usual this year because lawmakers are expected to craft soon after they reconvene a fiscal 2002 supplemental spending bill doling out billions of dollars for homeland security and defense.

"I don't know when to expect it, but I'd like to see it as soon as possible," said House Appropriations Committee Chairman Bill Young, R-Fla. And ranking member David R. Obey, D-Wis., added, "We're in a race against time."