Defense chief offers $170B rough estimate of fiscal 2009 war costs

Defense Secretary Robert Gates Wednesday estimated the military will need $170 billion for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in fiscal 2009, but quickly cautioned that he has "no confidence in that figure."

During the first hearing on the Pentagon's budget request for next year, Gates defended the Bush administration's decision to include only a $70 billion "emergency allowance" for war-related expenses along with its $515.4 billion proposal for the Defense Department, arguing there are far too many uncertainties to provide an accurate figure for anticipated fiscal 2009 war costs. Doing so, Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee, would be "precision without accuracy."

In 2006, Congress required the Pentagon to submit a full-year estimate of war costs with its annual budget proposal. Gates provided the $170 billion figure Wednesday at the urging of Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, D-Mich., adding that he would send a more detailed war request to Capitol Hill "just as soon as we have it."

The full request hinges largely on recommendations expected this spring from Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. military commander in Iraq, Gates said. Adding to the uncertainty, he added, is that nearly three-quarters of the fiscal 2009 war request will actually be spent by the next administration. The Pentagon has requested nearly $190 billion to wage war in fiscal 2008, but still is awaiting congressional approval of $102.5 billion.

Despite hefty growth in military spending over the last several years, Gates said long-term budgetary pressures could jeopardize development of the Army's $160 billion Future Combat Systems program.

It is "hard to see" how the program, the most expensive technological endeavor in Army history, could be completed in its entirety, Gates said. "That one is one we would have to look at carefully," he said. The budget request includes $3.6 billion for FCS, a system of manned and unmanned ground and air vehicles tied together by an extensive network.

Additionally, Gates said the Pentagon likely could not afford to buy significantly more F-22 Raptor fighter jets than the 183 now planned, despite pressure from the Air Force to buy an additional 198. Pentagon officials have indicated they plan to add four F-22s to the fiscal 2009 war supplemental, but there has been no commitment to purchase more aircraft after next year.

"I'm persuaded that 183 is probably the right number, or something in that ballpark," Gates said, adding that he is concerned more F-22s would come at the expense of the far less expensive Joint Strike Fighter.

In another matter, senators from both parties warned the White House against agreeing to a status-of-forces agreement with Iraq without consulting the Senate.

"I just feel that Congress should be made a full partner," said Sen. John Warner, R-Va., a former chairman of the Armed Services Committee. Gates asserted that the agreement would not commit U.S. forces to defend Iraq, the key sticking point for lawmakers who have said the Senate must approve any such committment.

Nonetheless, Gates assured the committee the Senate could review the agreement before it is approved.

Also Wednesday, Gates acknowledged that his recent decision to send 3,200 Marines to Afghanistan was because of shortfalls in NATO forces deployed to the country.

"I have brought unity to the alliance," Gates said. "Unfortunately, not in the right direction." NATO appears to be divided between countries willing to help execute the war in Afghanistan and others that are not, which "puts a cloud over the future of the alliance," he said.