Flu Pandemic Prediction
By Katherine Peters
I happen to be reading Andrew Krepinevich's thought-provoking new book, 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century, where he examines potential threats to U.S. security ranging from the collapse of Pakistan to global cyber attacks. By conjuring plausible future horrors, Krepinevich hopes to jolt policy-makers and military planners into creating realistic plans for coping with catastrophe. Scenario No. 3 should be required reading for anyone dealing with pandemic preparedness right now (which is to say most senior federal officials), given the legal, health, security and economic implications for the nation. The scenario takes place in 2010, when a global outbreak of avian influenza leads to the collapse of a weakened Mexican government leading millions of Mexicans to flee north across the border in search of security and health care.
Needless to say, this doesn't work out so well for Mexicans or Americans. The real trouble begins when the fictitious U.S. "President Dickson" nationalizes the country's insufficient vaccine and antiviral drug stocks, sparking riots across the country (earlier government attempts to take strong measures against the spread of the virus were vigorously opposed by the American Civil Liberties Union and various survivalist groups, albeit for different reasons). Things go downhill from there. Rumors that the wealthy and well-connected are getting access to antiviral drugs fuel public anger. To deal with the exodus from Mexico, the military is called upon to execute what would surely be an unworkable security plan. What's more, the Defense Department doesn't have enough non-lethal weapons for the mission, essentially guaranteeing that deadly force will be used. If that sounds implausible, check out the GAO report issued last week on that very topic.
Of course swine flu (or H1N1 flu virus, as we're supposed to be calling it now) may turn out to be another blip on the screen of over-hyped threats. But it's not hard to imagine that a devastating pandemic may soon be on the horizon.