Health Care Details

Details about the health care reconciliation bill likely to be taken up by the House this weekend are leaking out in advance of the official release this afternoon. Among the most interesting things is in an early summary of the bill is this language on the excise tax:

"Indexes the thresholds for inflation; raises the threshold in 2018 automatically if the per-employee cost of the Federal Employees Health Benefit Plan's standard option in 2018 exceeds that amount for 2010 by more than would have been expected if the threshold were indexed based on general inflation for the same time period."

So does that mean the excise tax is at all meaningful? If it's just going to be indexed to FEHBP growth, what's the incentive for employers to keep cost growth below the rate of inflation?