Tough summer ahead in Afghanistan, says Joint Chiefs chair

Prepare for a bad year in Afghanistan, the top U.S. military commander warned on Thursday.

"This year's going to be a very, very difficult year" because Taliban forces are expected to mount a major effort to reclaim territory they lost in 2010, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a wide-ranging, hour-long interview at a Government Executive Leadership Briefing at the National Press Club. (A video of the event is available here.)

Mullen also said the United States does not plan to send ground troops into Libya or to undertake military action in Syria.

And after a decade in which military spending nearly doubled, he said, defense budget cuts seem inevitable. But cuts must be made in a way that does not create a hollow force, Mullen said during an interview conducted by Timothy B. Clark, editor at large of Government Executive.

If Taliban forces launch the expected offensive, U.S. military commanders will be in the unusual position of mounting a strong counteroffensive while also beginning to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. "We will start to withdraw troops this summer," Mullen said. "There is no question that we will; we just don't know how many or from what parts" of Afghanistan.

When President Obama decided to send 30,000 extra troops into Afghanistan in 2009, he vowed to begin bringing them home this July. Beginning the drawdown as promised is important to Obama as public support for the war wanes and the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way.

The drawdown also delivers an "important message of transition" to the Afghan government, Mullen said. The U.S. aim is to have Afghan forces adequately trained and equipped to provide for their own defense by the end of 2014. "I think we can meet that goal," he said.

But the effort is likely to be arduous. "It has already started out to be a tough year. We had tragic losses yesterday," Mullen said, referring to the killing of eight U.S. airmen and a U.S. contractor by an Afghan military pilot.

"Every loss is tragic, but this is particularly difficult because it comes from an inside threat," Mullen said. The Afghan pilot was among Afghan security forces being trained by U.S. forces.

Even before the drawdown from Afghanistan begins, the Obama administration and the Iraqi government must decide whether U.S. troops in Iraq are going to remain there past the end of this year.

Because of the scale of the task of moving U.S. troops and equipment out of Iraq, "we have weeks, not months to decide" whether any of the 47,000 troops now in Iraq will remain after December, Mullen said.

On one hand, "the security environment is good," he said. On the other hand, "that doesn't mean we don't have any challenges or that the Iraqi government doesn't have challenges." And if U.S. forces depart on schedule, "there will be gaps" in Iraq's military capabilities, particularly in intelligence, aviation and logistics, he said.

But violence in Iraq "is the lowest since 2003," when the United States invaded and deposed Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein. "I'm comfortable with the development of Iraqi security forces," Mullen said.

In recent weeks, Defense Secretary Robert Gates has raised the possibility that some U.S. troops would remain after 2011. Gates said some Iraqi officials are interested in extending the U.S. military stay, but others, including Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, have said it is time for U.S. forces to go.

"We'll have to see what the political leaders do," Mullen said.

On Libya, Mullen said there is no plan to send U.S. ground troops. "The president has made it very clear to me -- no boots on the ground in Libya," he said.

Nonetheless, Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi "needs to be out," Mullen said. But removing him "is really the political strategy." The military strategy continues to be limited to protecting the Libyan people from Gadhafi's military.

Mullen praised NATO, which took over leadership of Libyan operations in March after the United States had led them for about two weeks. The international coalition did "in 18 days what it took 18 months to do in Bosnia," he said. That is, NATO rounded up multinational forces and began operations to protect the Libyan people.

"I believe we prevented a massive humanitarian disaster that Gadhafi would have wreaked on his citizens," Mullen said. "I think NATO's been very, very effective."

And in the end, "I actually do believe [Gadhafi's] days are numbered. If you ask me how many, I don't know the answer."

Mullen dismissed the idea that intervention in Libya might set a precedent for intervention in Syria. "Syria is a different country in a different place," he said. "We abhor the violence and the killing," but do not intend to intervene. Domestically, Mullen said, he worries about the effect of 10 years of war, repeated deployments and prolonged absences are having on troops and their families. Even some spouses and children are exhibiting symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, he said.

He also worries about impending budget cuts. Although Mullen has described the national debt as the greatest threat to national security, he said budget cuts are coming at a particularly difficult time for the military. Weapons bought during the military buildup of the 1980s, especially aircraft, are at the end of their lives and need to be replaced, he said.

And the demands on the military are not diminishing. "Most military leaders believe we live in a time of persistent conflict," he said. Two months ago, Mullen said, he could not have predicted that today U.S. forces would be involved in Libya or that 20,000 personnel and 18 ships would be delivering humanitarian aid to Japan.

"Demand will continue," and it cannot be met with a hollow force, he said. "I've been in a hollow military before, and I won't lead a hollow military. I know what one is and what it can and can't do, and I think it would be particularly dangerous in the world that we're living in now to hollow it out."