Caught in the Crosswind

Will Hurricane Katrina shake up elections in her aftermath?

Even before Hurricane Katrina touched down in late August, Republicans had good cause for worry about 2006. First, there was historical precedent: Midterm elections in the sixth year of a presidency traditionally have proved cruel to the party in the White House. Then there was the matter of President Bush's job approval ratings, which are at or near record lows. Finally, there was the volatility of the likely issues-Social Security, congressional ethics, gas prices, the Medicare prescription drug program rollout and the war in Iraq.

Now, the political landscape is even more treacherous. The stunning visuals from New Orleans and the scale of suffering, combined with the national humiliation and anger over the bungled response, have laid the groundwork for an unsettling election year.

The problem is not that Republicans are likely to shoulder the blame. Rather, it is that hurricane politics will dominate Capitol Hill for the foreseeable future and Republicans will be on the defensive, unable to move forward with their legislative priorities or advance the case for reelecting a GOP majority.

The ability to control the legislative agenda already has been compromised. Estate tax repeal was the first casualty as Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., announced that, after the August recess, the Senate would focus on hurricane relief legislation.

The debate over the Federal Emergency Management Agency's performance will drag on, and rancor over a formal probe-Republicans are calling for a bipartisan, bicameral committee while Democrats insist on an independent, 9/11 commission-style panel-seems likely to put Congress' image into further disrepute. Whatever the form, its findings inconveniently will be reported in 2006.

All this stands to obscure recent GOP accomplishments such as passage of the U.S.-Central American Free Trade Agreement, the energy bill and the highway bill, and all but guarantees that the upcoming budget reconciliation process will be even messier than anticipated, with hurricane politics offering Democrats a platform from which to oppose spending cuts and tax relief.

That's not the worst of it. Republican members returning from recess report that the rising cost of gas is what most concerns their constituents; in Katrina's wake, prices spiked again. For Republicans, this is a no-win situation since the playing field puts them at a disadvantage. There is, of course, no near-term solution short of price controls, and any focus on price-gouging or rising profits will inevitably shift attention to Republican and Bush administration ties to oil and gas interests. In 2004, for example, 80 percent of oil and gas industry political contributions went to Republicans.

As bleak as the post-Katrina setting might appear, there is some prospect that the GOP can regroup. The trademark of Democrats in the Bush era has been personal hostility toward the president, which has had the perverse effect of enabling Bush and his party to prosper despite a multitude of mistakes. Just as GOP antagonism toward President Bill Clinton galvanized support within his party and among voters, the distasteful and reflexive nature of much of the anti-Bush criticism tends to harden his base and win support from those who might not otherwise be inclined. And so far, Democrats have shown every indication of overplaying their hand on Katrina by attempting to pin full responsibility on the administration.

Only once since the Civil War has a president's party won seats in the sixth-year election-in 1998, the year independent counsel Kenneth Starr delivered his report to Congress chronicling President Clinton's relationship with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, when Democrats picked up four House seats. It may be useful for Democrats to reexamine the reasons this happened at a time when Clinton was arguably at his weakest.