Packing Heat

A new software program will help federal agencies plan for wildfires.

What does packing a knapsack have to do with planning for wildfires? Both tasks involve selecting the best mix of tools and resources that fit within certain constraints-whether it's the size of the knapsack or the size of federal appropriations.

So in developing a new software program that will aid in planning and budgeting for firefighting, experts at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, drew on solutions to a classic set of puzzles called "knapsack problems."

A hiker has to pick the most effective tools that will fit within size and weight constraints. Is it better to take the warm sleeping bag, or the light one? Is the gas stove worth the extra space, or will a box of matches suffice? And how do the answers change when the knapsack gets bigger or smaller, and the maximum load heavier or lighter?

In planning for wildfires, managers have to determine which are the most effective resources-including vehicles, aircraft, ground crew, support staff and managers-while staying within their budgets and making sure they can protect a given area. Fire Program Analysis, an example of "optimization software," takes input such as the terrain, climate and size of fires from previous years and computes the best possible combination of personnel and equipment. It also factors in priority areas, such as homes and habitats for endangered species.

"Some resources cost more, some produce more, some are faster," says Andy Kirsch, a program analyst working on Fire Program Analysis. "We're trying to maximize our effectiveness by quantifying the differences between resources." The airline industry uses similar optimization software to set prices and flight schedules, and the U.S. Postal Service is working with IBM on a system that will calculate the most efficient way to deliver the mail.

Fire Program Analysis has been in the works since 2002, and was conceived in response to calls from Congress and the White House for better cost analysis and interagency coordination. Five agencies respond to wildfires: the Forest Service, the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, the Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Bureau of Indian Affairs. Each has its own budgeting software-all of which will be replaced by Fire Program Analysis-which has forced Congress to review five budget requests in fivedifferent formats.

The new system shows the best choice of tools and the number of acres that can be protected under different budget scenarios.

Another innovation: Rather than divvying up resources by agency, the program was designed to serve 147 new fire planning units, geographic regions that will share resources and collaborate across agencies. "Each agency has a specific mission," says Venetia Gempler, a spokeswoman for the project. For example, the Park Service responds primarily to fires on parkland. But nature doesn't always stay within these artificial para-meters. "When fires start, they don't necessarily burn on just one ownership," Gempler says.

Fire Program Analysis is being built and deployed in two stages. The first, which aids in planning for the "initial response" phase of fires (the first 18 hours after ignition), is being rolled out now to the 147 regional units and slated to be fully operational in 2007.

The second stage is scheduled for completion in 2008. It will cover all other aspects of fire management, including large fires, extended response, fuels management, emergency stabilization and restoration, and prevention and education.

To design the program, the agencies assembled an interagency team of more than 20 people and drew on the expertise of economists, ecologists and other experts. IBM is building the first phase of the software. The contract for the second phase has not yet been awarded.