Navy

How Many Ships Are Enough?

August 15, 2001

Deputy Editor

hen Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld served as Pentagon chief during the Ford administration, he presided over a Navy fleet of more than 600 ships. Today, the fleet is about half that size and shrinking. At the current rate of shipbuilding, the fleet will number fewer than 200 ships by 2015. Like its sister services, the Navy is awaiting guidance from the Bush administration on how to proceed with plans to rebuild the fleet. Defense officials have said they are placing a high priority on reviewing the Navy's shipbuilding program.

Speaking at a conference on acquisition reform in June, Edward "Pete" Aldridge, undersecretary of Defense for acquisition, technology and logistics, said, "We have a 300-ship Navy and it's declining. We need to determine if that's the right size, and if not, we need to do something about it." The findings of the administration's shipbuilding review will be folded into the congressionally mandated Quadrennial Defense Review, which is to be completed in September, Aldridge said.

While the Bush administration has indicated it is prepared to spend whatever is necessary to shore up flagging defense procurement accounts, it is not at all certain which current weapons programs-including Navy shipbuilding and aircraft programs-will be sustained after the administration completes a review of the Defense program.

A study commissioned by Rumsfeld to find ways to transform the military into a more effective force concluded that at least two of the Navy's prized shipbuilding programs-the next-generation aircraft carrier and the DD-21 destroyer-would not significantly contribute to such an effort.

"We didn't see a substantial difference in operations capability in the DD-21 compared to the other systems," says retired Air Force Gen. James McCarthy, who chaired the study panel. "We felt the continuation of what we're building now is the right answer."

That determination was a blow to advocates of the next-generation destroyer, which the Navy is pursuing as the first ship in a family of surface combatants designed to operate close to shore as well as on the high seas. While killing the program would be difficult-it enjoys strong support in Congress-the Navy in May delayed choosing a builder for the ship until after the completion of Rumsfeld's review. Two industry teams are competing for the contract, one led by Bath Iron Works and Lockheed Martin Government Electronic Systems, and the other by Ingalls Shipbuilding and Raytheon Systems.

Navy and Marine Corps aircraft programs fared better in the transformation panel's recommendations. McCarthy says the panel strongly recommended accelerating the Navy's version of the multi-service Joint Strike Fighter. He also voiced support for the problem-plagued V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft, which is designed to take off and land like a helicopter and fly like a plane. "Assuming [the problems] are resolved, that aircraft is certainly a transformational aircraft," McCarthy says.

It is not yet clear whether the Bush administration will endorse the panel's recommendations, and even if it does, restructuring Navy modernization plans will require congressional support. About the only thing certain for the Navy is that while charting a new course will be difficult, remaining on the current course could be disastrous.