9 Hot Trends for '99

ithout its telephones, the federal government wouldn't run. But in the last decade, the list of absolutely essential means of communication has expanded far beyond telephones. The Census Bureau, for example, can't collect its data without electronic mail. As the bureau prepares for what its executives call the largest peacetime undertaking of the United States government -the decennial census of 2000 -"messaging is integrated into all of our day-to-day operations," says Larry James Patin, the bureau's telecommunications chief.

In the next few months, the 5,500 Census e-mail users will expand to 13,000 or so as the bureau adds temporary employees to help with the census that will reach every nook and cranny of the United States. Some of the new hires undoubtedly will never have seen e-mail before, but they'll be using it to receive instructions and relay updates to regional offices.

The bureau uses its system, based on Notes software from Lotus Development Corp., for more than just messages, Patin says. For example, the human resources staff has created what he calls an "amazingly successful" personnel information system based on Notes, and the computer support staff uses it to track requests for help.

Meanwhile, dozens of agencies are using satellite systems for communications, including the NATO aircraft engaged in Operation Allied Force in Yugoslavia. Commercial and military satellites relay map data, situation reports and other information between mission aircraft and bases in NATO nations such as England.

The B-2 stealth bombers carry smart bombs that find their targets using the Global Positioning System. GPS is a series of satellites that broadcast signals over much of the earth. Special receivers report the user's location with more precision than was possible a decade ago. GPS signals are used in civilian agencies and the private sector for applications such as surveying.

Pagers rely on satellites, of course, but cellular phones use ground-based antennas. Other wireless services include wireless data networks (LANs) that typically use infrared signals and specialized mobile radio (commonly seen in taxicabs and package delivery trucks). Advanced cell phones and pagers can send and receive e-mail or act as data terminals.

When it comes to more conventional wired communications, the proliferation is just as confusing. Once there were just voice and data services, but now there are digital voice services, video that travels over the Internet and many permutations of the complex technology that enables a file from an old minicomputer in, say, Chicago to reach your desk and present itself as a message attachment.

There's not only e-mail, but also the World Wide Web, intranets and virtual private networks, as well as the more conventional data networks of the past. Telephone-based services such as faxing are getting more complex, too.

The complexity is compounded by the incessant corporate mergers and spinoffs in the computing and telecommunications industries. Strategic, regulatory and technology considerations are causing the shifts, which have left customers unsettled. The trend seems to be toward consolidation of large companies, but new startups keep springing up in response to the new opportunities offered by rapidly advancing technologies.

The upshot is that communications managers, in the federal government or elsewhere, must be fast on their feet. They need to re-evaluate their communications choices more often, and they must work with users to minimize the disruption associated with each transition to a new communications provider.

At Census, Patin tested competing mail systems to determine how readily the bureau could migrate to the newer software. He checked the candidates' reliability after installation and their compatibility with the bureau's other systems, both present and planned. "We went through a series of consultants and contractors," he recalls, learning along the way which ones could do what Census needed done.

He started with small pilots before committing to upgrade the entire bureau. Once committed, he opted to use the software company's rapid migration services so the transition would not take longer than necessary. If the e-mail goes out for any length of time, Patin explains, he'll be looking for a new job.