Editor's Notebook <br />Change Isn't in the Air

No. The first presidential election of the 21st century is likely to keep government close to its present course whether the White House goes to Gov. George W. Bush or Vice President Al Gore. The candidates' rhetoric may suggest greater change than is really in prospect.

In keeping with his party's traditions, Bush has painted Gore as the candidate of Big Government. Gore, he says, intends "to grow the federal government in the largest increase since Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1965, and we're talking about a massive government, folks. We're talking about adding to, or increasing, 200 new programs-200 programs; 20,000 bureaucrats." And Gore "trusts bureaucrats, planners, thinkers-people in Washington, D.C., who want to plan our lives for us," says Bush. And, if Gore is elected, "the era of big government being over is over."

Such rhetoric recalls Reagan-era campaigning against government (as "the problem") and Bush's proposed tax cut likewise summons memories of Reagan Budget Director Richard Darman's theory that depriving Congress of money would be like cutting the "children's allowance"-if they don't have it, they can't spend it.

But Bush hasn't talked much about shrinking government. Indeed he has proposed a laundry list of domestic initiatives-spending or tax benefits for education, prescription drugs, health insurance for poor people, nursing home insurance and the like. He has suggested little structural reform; the Commerce and Education departments aren't on the block as they were in the Gingrich-led Congress. As one GOP adviser told my colleague Burt Solomon of National Journal, Bush's "compassionate conservatism" is "an acknowledgement that the welfare state is here to stay, so let's mend it and not end it." On national defense issues, Bush slips into Cold War-era rhetoric, but his budget plans don't seem to contemplate much investment in modernizing the military. Indeed, some defense industry leaders are more comfortable with Gore than with such Bush advisers as Colin Powell. On regulatory issues, Bush doubtless would be less inclined to command and control than would Gore.

Gore offers broad new entitlements to people while at the same time promising to pay off the national debt by 2012. A relatively small tax cut is also on the Gore agenda, with all of it made possible by the projection of huge budget surpluses stretching to the horizon. Gore has not lapsed into bureaucrat-bashing, but neither has he proposed any growth in the civil service, and he prides himself on his "reinvention" record whose centerpiece was a substantial reduction in civil service head count.

No matter who prevails on Nov. 7, Washington faces its first transition since 1992. That transition did not get good reviews, so new legislation and other steps have been taken this year to smooth the way for the next political team. In this issue, we offer a guide useful both to incoming political appointees and to senior civil servants who will be getting used to new policies and new bosses during a period that's bound to be difficult and exhilarating at the same time.