Crusading Against Doom

The comptroller general sees the fiscal shape of things to come.

Should this month's cover have labeled Comptroller General David M. Walker a "prophet of doom?" Perhaps so, since he flatly declares that the United States' fiscal profligacy could lead us down the path of every other great republic, none of which has lasted more than 300 years. But we decided that Walker is better called a "budget crusader," because the game is not over and he is working to help policymakers stop our government from toppling into the fiscal abyss.

We shall see whether President Bush will decide to worry about the rising tides of deficit and debt. He has hinted some concern, but won't show his hand until he unveils his Social Security and budget proposals this month. Meantime, we choose Government Accountability Office chief Walker as our cover subject because he, more than others, has elevated the fiscal warning signal to orange.

Duct tape won't be enough to patch the government's leaky finances. Even if Bush meets his modest goal of cutting the deficit in half during the next four years, that won't do much to solve the long-term problems of the government's huge entitlement programs. The president has used the word "crisis" to describe Social Security's funding dilemma, but the greater predicament lies in the realm of health care, where continuing inflation is driving spending on Medicare and Medi- caid through the roof. Social Security, health care and other entitlements, tax reform, the war in Iraq and defense modernization programs all will be considered this year in the light of the growing budget crisis.

The fiscal problem has an important moral dimension. If we continue to borrow and to use Social Security and Medicare surpluses for current spending, we simply pick the pockets of our children and grandchildren. They will suffer the consequences in the form of higher taxes, smaller benefits and a lower standard of living.

Our lead article this month by Shawn Zeller explores the fiscal difficulties government faces and explains why our readers are facing reductions in funding of the programs they run and in the administrative systems that support them. It sets the scene for the new round of austerity that President Bush is poised to announce with his fiscal 2006 budget.

In an ideal world, budget decisions would be weighed against the results they achieve. Indeed, for a decade government has worked to measure results and improve performance of public programs, and Bush has explicitly sought to link budget with performance. As Amelia Gruber reports in the second half of our budget package, politics tends to trump such rational approaches. Here again, Walker has stepped forward with ways to evaluate what roles the public sector ought to be playing.

Two articles this month address another hot topic in Washington-intelligence reform. Shane Harris looks behind the curtain of the new reform law to examine urgently needed changes that aren't likely to result. And Lindsay Moran, who left the CIA in 2003 after almost five years in the clandestine service, offers a personal account of the problems the agency has with keeping talented young officers. Being in government, one concludes, doesn't seem to get any easier as time goes on.