Riding Out the Storm

he towering sandstone walls and narrow ravines at Zion National Park in Southern Utah are geological marvels that attract thousands of hikers throughout the summer months. But when severe weather hits the normally arid region, the ravines, also known as "slot canyons," can turn into treacherous and deadly waterways within a few hours.

On the morning of July 27, 1998, National Weather Service forecasters in Salt Lake City studied the latest radar data and computer models, found the right ingredients for thunderstorms near the park and issued a flash flood watch. By 2 p.m., three inches of rain had fallen about 20 miles north of the park and forecasters changed the flood watch to a warning, even though there was no rain over the park. The forecasters urged park rangers to keep hikers out of Zion's most popular slot canyon, the Narrows. That evening, the forecast proved correct. The North Fork of the Virgin River crested and pushed a 3-foot wall of water through the Narrows, killing two hikers and forcing seven others to spend the night stranded on high ground. But dozens of visitors avoided the canyon-and the dangerous flooding-because of the warning.

"It's likely the actions of these forecasters saved at least 40 lives that day and probably more. The forecast applied the latest technology using a new capability to monitor heavy-rain-producing thunderstorms," says Vickie Nadolski, Western Region director for the Weather Service.

But even the latest forecast technology has limits. Just over a year later, on Aug. 11, 1999, a tornado touched down in Salt Lake City and in 14 minutes killed one person, injured 81 and caused $180 million in damage over a five-mile stretch of the city's downtown. Unlike the case in Zion, in Salt Lake City, Weather Service forecasters failed to see the tornado developing and predicted only severe thunderstorms for the area. William Alder, who retired in December as head meteorologist at the Salt Lake City weather forecast office, says the tornado was not picked up by the agency's state-of-the-art radar system because of the area's mountainous terrain. The city is located in a valley and the radar system, located on a mountaintop, does not scan that low. "It would be dumb for us to put a radar in the valley. It wouldn't see [most] weather," says Alder, noting that tornadoes are extremely rare in Salt Lake City.

The two meteorological events, occurring in the same region about a year apart, illustrate the challenges the National Weather Service faces in achieving its goal of becoming a "no surprise" service. While a $4.5 billion technology overhaul has given forecasters the tools to make remarkably accurate forecasts like the one for Zion, meteorology still remains as much art as science. For the agency, "no surprise" means using the latest technology to provide more timely and accurate forecasts. Since 1993, the agency has increased the lead-time for severe weather warnings from 15 to 18 minutes and improved the accuracy of those forecasts from about 65 percent to more than 80 percent.

"'No surprise' doesn't mean a perfect forecast, it means you alert people," says Jack Kelly, a retired Air Force brigadier general who has been director of the Weather Service since 1998. The real challenge for the 130-year-old agency no longer is technical, but managerial. The Weather Service has the tools to provide the best forecasts in the world; now agency managers must learn how to use those tools effectively and with a common purpose in a unique federal bureaucracy.

Emphasizing Service

The National Weather Service, headquartered in Silver Spring, Md., is among the most far-flung and decentralized federal agencies. Its 121 weather forecast offices are scattered from Anchorage, Alaska, to San Juan, Puerto Rico. If the Weather Service were a military organization, its forecast offices would be its forward-deployed units. They are 24-hour, seven-day-a-week operations, each staffed by an average of two dozen meteorologists, hydrologists, technicians and other personnel who gather data from sources ranging from supercomputers to the agency's network of more than 11,000 volunteer weather observers. The offices, located in both rural and urban areas, are the agency's public face. They provide the severe weather warnings and watches and general forecasts that are used to create television weather reports and help local emergency management officials decide how many snowplows to send out and when to sound tornado alarms. The forecast offices are grouped into four regions (Central, Southern, Eastern and Western) for administrative support.

Most of the other agency operations either enhance or support the forecasts made by local weather offices. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction, headquartered in Camp Springs, Md., is the agency's nerve center, providing global guidance and advanced computer models for all the forecasting offices and overseeing specialized operations such as the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., and the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami. Those centers assist forecast offices in predicting events such as hurricanes and tornadoes.

Kelly says the Weather Service is not a traditional government scientific or research and development organization, but an information agency that emphasizes the "service" in its name. "We do not exist to make forecasts for ourselves. We exist to satisfy the American public. If the American public perceives that our services are not relevant, they will ask whether we need a Weather Service," Kelly says.

The agency does not survey its customers but does collect feedback on its performance at various industry, emergency management and media forums. By 2003, the agency expects to have a more formal customer satisfaction measurement process that will allow it to survey industry, media, emergency managers and the general public about the quality of weather information. The agency has long tracked how well its meteorologists forecast the weather by comparing their predictions with actual temperatures and other scientific measures.

Providing timely, accurate information to the public has been the Weather Service's underlying mission since Congress established it in 1870 as part of the Army's signal corps.

Over the past 130 years, service has remained central to the agency's mission, while change has been a constant. The agency's customers, once primarily farmers and steamboat captains, now include airline pilots and Wall Street investors who use long-range forecasts to play the futures markets. The tools for collecting and transmitting weather data have evolved from telegraph lines and hand-drawn weather maps to satellites and supercomputers. And the agency has grown dramatically. The Weather Service has evolved from a handful of Army meteorologists without their own budget to a Commerce Department agency with nearly 5,000 civilian workers and an annual budget of nearly $700 million.

Perhaps the agency's greatest-and most painful changes-have occurred over the past decade as part of an agencywide $4.5 billion modernization. The modernization had a two-pronged approach: bring in new technology to improve the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts, then use that technology to restructure and dramatically reduce the number of field offices from more than 300 to 121.

The Technology of Change

Better radar systems and an integrated computer system have allowed the agency to consolidate smaller forecasting offices that once covered single states and counties into larger forecasting offices covering multiple states. In Georgia, for example, seven offices once covered the state's 90 counties. Now the state has a single forecasting office in Peachtree, Ga., and gets some support from five offices in neighboring states. The consolidation led to a 15 percent reduction in the agency's workforce during the 1990s. The agency never was forced to conduct layoffs; all 800 jobs were cut through retirements or buyouts. Changing skill requirements made eliminating jobs necessary. Traditionally, forecast office staffs were almost evenly split between meteorologists, who made forecasts, and weather technicians, who oversaw data collection. With the new technologies, many of the technician positions were eliminated and new meteorological jobs were added. Now, meteorologists account for about 80 percent of most forecast office staffs.

Lans Rothfusz, who heads the Peachtree, Ga., forecast office, says the addition of meteorologists allows local offices to put out more frequent and improved forecasts. A single meteorologist now can oversee the dissemination of severe weather warnings to the emergency management community and media, while another meteorologist can serve as science operations officer-a senior ombudsman trouble-shooting problems, coordinating training and pitching in with other forecasting tasks as needed. Barry Gooden, who serves as the warning coordination meteorologist in Peachtree, says the consolidation disturbed local emergency management officials and relations with them had to be rebuilt. In many cases, local officials who had dealt with a forecasting office in their community were forced to deal with a centralized office. But emergency managers have become more comfortable with the new structure, which includes a full-time warning coordination meteorologist. They get the same, and often better, products and services, Gooden says.

Completing a massive information technology overhaul was a key element of restructuring the agency. "Without the [technological] modernization, we could not have done the restructuring," Kelly says. The cornerstone of the IT infusion was an advanced computer and telecommunications system, known as the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). It allows meteorologists to pull weather data from the latest automated sensors, satellites and next-generation Doppler radars and combine it with supercomputer models to make more timely and accurate weather forecasts. Since modernization began in the late 1980s, the agency has expanded local forecasts from five days to seven days. Getting the system in place was costly, difficult and took more than 10 years. AWIPS was first proposed in the mid-1980s to replace the obsolete and expensive Automation of Field Systems and Services forecasting system. The initial $350 million AWIPS price tag rose to $525 million by 1996, and the modernization was delayed by a dispute with a contractor. That same year, the Commerce Department's inspector general warned that the program was headed for trouble. Soon, members of Congress began taking notice of the stalled half-billion dollar program.

By mid-1997, the agency was in the throes of a severe budget crisis and was warning lawmakers and the Clinton administration that continuing both modernization and current operations without layoffs would add an additional $40 million to the agency's budget. Lawmakers and the administration were outraged. Weather Service chief Elbert "Joe" Friday, who had drawn up the modernization plan as the agency's deputy director in the 1980s, lost his job in June 1997 after heading the agency for nine years. Kelly, who as commander of the Air Force's Air Weather Service from 1988 to 1994 had overseen a major restructuring of that organization, was picked to replace Friday.

Kelly's marching orders were to finish the modernization and to do it as soon as possible. Kelly says AWIPS had come to mean "all things to all people" and, as a result, there were neither clear goals nor a single manager overseeing the effort. Kelly quickly changed that. He put one person in charge, set a goal of finishing the program by June 1999 at a cost of no more than $550 million, narrowed the system's requirements to only essential technologies and set firm deadlines for the forecasting offices to begin operating the new system. He told the offices that if they did not meet their deadlines they would no longer receive funding to operate the old system and would instead have to rob their training, maintenance and awards budgets.

"I never thought that AWIPS would be what it is today," says former Salt Lake City forecast chief Alder, who, like many field forecasters, had viewed modernization as an unfulfilled promise from headquarters after years of pushed-back deadlines and budget shortfalls. This widespread attitude forced Kelly to devise a strict schedule and rigid guidelines for fielding AWIPS; the system was installed at all 121 forecast offices in June 1999-on schedule.

In a September 1999 report to Congress, then-Commerce Secretary William Daley cited "substantial improvements in warnings and forecasts as a direct result of modernization." Among the improvements:

• Increased warning times for tornadoes, from six minutes to 11 minutes since 1993.
• Increased warning times for flash floods, from 21 minutes to more than 50 minutes since 1993.
• More accurate hurricane landfall predictions, from within 100 miles to within 88 miles since 1993.
  

Agency forecasters, the commercial weather industry and lawmakers widely credit Kelly and his take-charge management style for forcing the agency to finish its modernization. Kelly is quick to note that only a few years ago, the Commerce De-partment's inspector general said AWIPS had less than a 40 percent chance of meeting its schedule and cost goals.

Prickly Style

Kelly characterizes his role as "the proverbial thorn in everyone's side." Indeed, his prickly management style has raised questions among some Weather Service veterans about whether he is the right person to move the agency beyond modernization. An agency manager, responding anonymously to a Federal Performance Project survey, said Kelly "employs a strong command-and-control style of leadership. Many feel . . . his intimidating interpersonal style thwarts an open information exchange." Another manager, who also requested anonymity, suggested Kelly's style is hurting morale to the point that some are leaving the agency.

But Kelly has backers, too. Joel Myers, founder and president of AccuWeather in State College, Pa., one of the nation's oldest and largest commercial forecasters, says Kelly has won the respect of commercial weather service companies. He has attended industry forums, visited companies and invited industry representatives to talk with agency employees. And Western Region manager Nadolski says Kelly has put the agency on the right track, restored its credibility with Congress and given it a strategic vision. "Jack Kelly is doing the right things for this agency and a lot of people don't like it because they're being held accountable and because he has high expectations," she says.

Kelly admits his style may have won him some critics, but he says he has learned to "push down more and more authority" to managers. "Day to day, I am not a real friendly guy to deal with on issues," Kelly says. "I like facts. I like us to make a decision. I like us to do it right the first time. I will frequently say 'There's enough time to do it right, I just wish it would be done right the first time.' "

Exploiting the Tools

Kelly's style has not stopped the Weather Service from planning how to operate more efficiently and to exploit the new tools and organizations modernization has created.

Kelly says that over the past decade, the agency was so focused on completing the modernization that it failed to do coherent strategic planning. "[Modernization] became the be-all and end-all of this organization," he says. "There was very little creative energy expanded as to where we were going." Without clear strategic goals, Kelly says, wherever an agency "winds up is good enough." He says that unless performance measures are attached to agency goals, there is no way of knowing whether they've been achieved. Thus Kelly has directed the agency to come up with a blueprint for exploiting new technology and measuring its usefulness. The blueprint is outlined in the agency's strategic plan for 2000 to 2005, the first detailed road map for the post-modernization Weather Service. It offers five broad goals:

• 
  
• Delivering better products and services.
• Capitalizing on scientific and technological advances.
• Exercising global leadership.
• Creating an agency culture that embraces change.
• Managing resources to maximize return on investment.

Specific performance measures accompany each goal. For example, improved service will be measured by extending forecasts to seven days-a goal reached in late 2000. Global leadership will be exercised by calling for the open exchange of meteorological information worldwide. The agency will capitalize on technology through initiatives such as preparing and disseminating forecasts digitally by 2003. Edward Johnson, director of the agency's strategic planning and policy office, says the five-year strategic plan is used in creating the agency's annual operating plan and its budgets. Equally important, Johnson says, are plans from regional river forecast centers and local weather forecast offices that outline specific goals and verification systems linked to the agency's larger goals.

"I don't look at strategic planning as a fad. I do it because it makes sense," says John Feldt, who heads the agency's Southeast River Forecast Center in Peachtree, Ga. The center shares space with the local forecast office and makes forecasts for all rivers in the region as well as assisting communities with water management planning. The center's operating plan is linked to the agency's larger goal of improving service by emphasizing greater river forecast accuracy. The Weather Service outlined its key performance measures in the Commerce Department's annual performance report. The agency's top goal has been advancing short-term warning as measured by improvements in a host of forecast and warning areas such as lead-time for severe weather, false tornado alerts and improved forecasting of winter storms. In a June 2000 report, "Observations of the Department of Commerce's Fiscal Year 1999 Annual Program Performance Report and Fiscal Year 2001 Annual Performance Plan," GAO found that the Weather Service has had "some success" but was not able to achieve all of its goals. While the agency met the mark in improving lead time for tornado warnings and some forecasts, it fell short in its goals for improving lead times for flash floods and accuracy of snowfall forecasts. In many cases where the agency fell short, the Weather Service contends there has been marked improvement. GAO found the agency performance goals "are quantifiable, measurable and outcome-oriented and continue to provide a clear picture of its intended performance."

Kelly says the strategic planning challenge for any agency is maintaining employee enthusiasm for reaching the goals. He says the Weather Service does that by giving managers greater responsibility. For example, certain office chiefs have been given control over training, awards and supplies budgets as long they meet their goals. "One of the ways you keep a plan viable is if slowly, but continually [field managers] see some benefit flowing to them," Kelly says.

Several Weather Service managers say that in the past, strategic planning produced few results because employees were not held accountable for achieving them. "Having goals explicitly stated is new, and it does increase anxiety levels because [a manager] can now say 'Here's what's expected, are you working toward it?' " says Peachtree office chief Rothfusz. He adds that the promise of greater spending responsibility as a reward for meeting goals is a motivator. Managers now link organizational goals to performance plans so employees are judged on whether their work contributes to the forecast office's overall success, Johnson says. Successful managers can gain financial bonuses and those who fall short must explain why or risk being penalized under federal personnel rules.

Managing Money

One of the agency's top strategic goals is to set up a disciplined financial management system and get accurate information about the cost of performing the various aspects of weather forecasting. Irwin "Ted" David, who was appointed the agency's first chief financial officer in 1998, says traditionally the Weather Service viewed financial management as the process of getting the budget passed by Congress and handling transactions related to paying the agency's bills. Now, he says, the agency wants managers to focus on compiling better financial information and using it to make everyday and strategic decisions. David says the first step is giving managers the tools to compile that information. In 2000, the agency began using commercial online analysis processing software, which takes data from a variety of sources, slices and dices them and puts them into a consistent and useable format. Ultimately, the software will replace three separate and outdated systems now used to track agency finances.

David also hopes to have cost accounting practiced across the agency by 2002. Some offices already are experimenting with it. Cost accounting, an increasingly common financial practice among federal agencies, is the precise tracking of all costs for a given program, job or activity. For example, the agency could use cost accounting to calculate the true cost of delivering aviation-related weather services to specific regions of the country.

Staffing Outlook Sunny

Unlike most federal agencies, the Weather Service is not facing a shortage of its key personnel-meteorologists-nor has it been struggling to keep them despite the strong labor market of recent years. Working for the federal government is a popular choice for forecasters graduating from college, especially for those uninterested in becoming television weather reporters and for those seeking better pay than offered for most entry-level jobs with commercial forecasting companies. "Hundreds of college graduates come out with degrees in meteorology [annually], but we are only looking for dozens," says John Jones, deputy director of the Weather Service.

Jones says the agency is short on information technology specialists, who are scarce throughout the federal government because of a nationwide shortage. The agency will remedy that situation by training former forecasting support staffers-whose work was automated by the modernization-as information technology specialists. The agency also will use the Commerce Department's online job application system to streamline its hiring process. In many cases, Jones says, the agency attracts interested IT workers but cannot hire them as rapidly as companies can.

Jones says the Weather Service also needs to better train future managers. "Our leaders usually get to be managers because they are the best technicians," he says. "We never have really properly trained our leaders." Last spring, the agency established the Senior Leadership Potential Program to help remedy the lack of management training by picking a handful of managers in grades GS-13 to GS-15 to lead special project teams. The goal is not to produce senior executives, but to give existing managers a chance to hone skills, says Jones, adding that another dozen managers will likely be selected for special projects this spring.

Symbiosis With Industry

Outside the defense industry's reliance on the Defense Department, there is no more symbiotic relationship between an industry and a federal agency than the one between the Weather Service and weather forecasting companies. "The brutal truth is the private sector couldn't exist without us and we couldn't do our job without them," says Kelly. But there have been few calls for privatizing the agency. Instead, the industry and the agency have worked to find a balance between the weather information provided by the National Weather Service and that sold by companies. Commercial weather service is a $430 million industry of about 400 companies that tailor Weather Service data for clients. Most commonly, these firms create weather forecasts that are shown on television news broadcasts, including the Weather Channel's, or are printed in newspapers. Other users of the tailored forecasting data are commercial shippers, construction companies, ski areas and agriculture operations.

"We are opposed to privatizing the Weather Service. We definitely think there's a role for government," says Myers, the AccuWeather chief. Myers says the agency's role should be gathering weather observations from government-owned sensors, satellites and radar systems and using it to issue weather warnings and watches. All other forecasting work can and should be done by commercial companies using federal data, he says.

Kelly says the Weather Service always will provide general forecasts that any citizen can use, following an early 1990s policy statement that says "it will not compete with the private sector when a service is currently provided or can be provided by commercial enterprises."

The Weather Service has struck the balance well in its relationship with industry, according to "The Role of Government in the Digital Age," an October report sponsored by the Computer and Communications Industry Association, an international trade group of senior executives in computer and communications companies. "The NWS is the single, official voice in times of weather emergencies. But more specialized private-sector forecasts also exist," said the report. "NWS has provided at-cost access to the public any information it produces, which promotes private-sector use of that basic information." The Weather Service's relationship with industry is only one of the challenges managers will face as they move beyond modernization. The balance the agency must truly seek is not only with industry, but one of combining the latest technology with the age-old art of forecasting. "My biggest disappointment is my inability to get us to move as fast as we need to," Kelly says. "We have to be more agile in the way we think and act."