The Harbinger

Never comment on rumors. That's the first lesson any public affairs officer worth his salt will tell you, whether you're a politician, businessperson or government official. And that's why Juval Aviv found it so exasperating-and frightening-every time outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge announced the latest terrorist threat, or changed the color-coded Homeland Security Advisory System. Aviv was particularly appalled last August when DHS boosted the threat level in New York, Washington and Newark, N.J., after unearthing years-old evidence that financial buildings in those cities had been cased by terrorist operatives.

To the terrorists, the message was all too clear, Aviv says: "You are saying, 'We know about threats to five buildings,' but what if there were really eight?"

Homeland Security officials reject Aviv's charge as far oversimplified, since DHS keeps much of its intelligence proprietary. "We believe in this case that the information served as a deterrent and reassured the public that there were significant security procedures in place," agency spokesman Brian Roehrkasse says.

But Aviv characterizes DHS' approach as "security on the fly," which he says frightens some citizens, who have no idea of how they can help, and causes others to completely ignore the warnings.

A former Israeli counterterrorism intelligence officer, Aviv is hoping to send America a wake-up call with his new book, Staying Safe: The Complete Guide to Protecting Yourself, Your Family and Your Business (Juris, 2003). It lays out handy tips that any American might find of use and that government officials-particularly those sent abroad-might find life-saving.

Combating terrorism, Aviv says, is not just government's task, but all of society's. "We always say that law enforcement will never have enough people on the street," he says. But he argues that DHS has neglected to educate Americans. "It's not enough to come up with a color alert system that's geared toward law enforcement. . . . The average person has no clue what to do when it's green or orange or whatever."

Aviv now runs a security company in New York, Interfor, which advises government agencies and corporations. Over the summer, the firm conducted experiments by leaving backpacks, suitcases and luggage on trains and in subway stations and other public places. The result, he says, was "scary." Rarely did anyone even notice the items, much less report them.

Roehrkasse points to DHS' Ready.gov Web site, which provides advice to citizens about identifying and preparing for terrorist threats, as well as two years of aggressive outreach by agency officials: "We encourage [the public] to make a communication plan before anything happens, and to learn more about the threats."

But rather than educating citizens, DHS has imposed ineffectual rules, Aviv says, such as the requirement that passengers on planes heading into Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport stay in their seats for the last half-hour of the flight, or during the first half-hour for outbound flights. That sends a message to citizens-and to terrorists-that other cities don't matter as much as the capital.

In Israel, by contrast, thousands of lives have been saved by quick-thinking citizens who've noticed suspicious bags, warned others and alerted police. Government agencies there issue warnings to citizens only when they are definite and immediate, Aviv says.

Most of all, Aviv worries that the government has not prepared Americans for the inevitable next terrorist attack. In Israel, he points out, buses continue to run on routes where terrorist bombers have struck. Citizens go back to their daily lives. In America, he fears, "Another attack would be the end of the economy. . . . This country doesn't know how to deal with it."