10 congressional races for federal employees to watch

Updated with Associated Press projections as of 12 p.m. on Dec. 3 

While most of the 2024 election attention is focused on the presidential race, the ability of the winner to enact his or her agenda — including with respect to federal employees — is dependent on which party ends up in control of the House and Senate. 

Republicans hold a slight edge in Senate races, while the majority in the House will likely be decided by a handful of toss-up elections. 

Because of their potential to affect federal employees, especially regarding the appropriations process that funds agencies, here are 10 competitive congressional races that federal employees should watch. 

1. Montana Senate 

Jon Tester, the top Democrat on the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee and Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, is up for re-election in a state that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump won by approximately 16 points in 2020. The senator played a significant role in the passage of the 2022 PACT Act, which expanded care and benefits for veterans who were exposed to toxic substances and prompted a hiring surge at the Veterans Affairs Department. 

Tester’s Republican challenger is Tim Sheehy, an aerospace entrepreneur and former Navy SEAL. Based on recordings of the candidate, the Daily Montanan reported that Sheehy has called for defunding the Homeland Security and Education departments, moving agencies away from Washington, D.C. and limiting the amount of time individuals can work for the federal government to eight years. 

“They need to retire and go away,” Sheehy said of federal employees. “They need to be replaced by real Americans who understand what Americans do every day.”

Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Republican.

Projected Winner: Republican Tim Sheehy 

2. Virginia’s 7th Congressional District 

This district, which is home to nearly 55,700 federal employees, is up for grabs. It is currently represented by Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic lead on bipartisan legislation to repeal tax rules that negatively impact some federal workers’ retirement incomes, but she has opted to run for governor. 

The Republican nominee is Derrick Anderson, an attorney who served in the Trump White House and as a Green Beret. He opposes Trump’s plan to relocate many government jobs out of Washington, D.C., telling Virginia public media: “I’m not going to vote for legislation that’s going to remove jobs from our district; bottom line.” 

Anderson’s opponent is Eugene Vindman, a 25-year Army veteran who, along with his twin brother Alexander, raised concerns about the 2019 phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that led to the former president’s first impeachment. 

On his campaign website, Vindman argued that Schedule F, a Trump initiative to remove civil service job protections for tens of thousands of career federal employees, would result in job losses for constituents, impact government contractors and “devastate” the local economy. 

Cook rates the race as a toss-up. 

Projected Winner: Democrat Eugene Vindman 

3. Wisconsin Senate 

The top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations subcommittee with jurisdiction over the departments of Labor, Health and Human Services and Education — Tammy Baldwin — is facing re-election against multimillionaire businessman Eric Hovde. 

Baldwin is a significant critic of Postmaster General Louis DeJoy’s plan to overhaul U.S. Postal Service operations, arguing that it has not improved efficiency. Hovde has called the Education Department “one of the worst monstrosities that’s ever been created” and supports shuttering it. 

Cook has labeled Wisconsin as a toss-up for both the presidential and Senate race. 

Projected Winner: Democrat Tammy Baldwin 

4. California’s 41st Congressional District 

House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee Chairman Ken Calvert is again facing off against former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who Calvert, a 16-term Republican, defeated in 2022 by less than five points. Cook has rated the rematch as a toss-up. 

Calvert in 2023 argued that the Defense Department could save money by not replacing civilian employees who leave federal service. 

Projected Winner: Republican Ken Calvert 

5. Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District

Matt Cartwright is the top Democrat on the House Appropriations subcommittee that oversees the Commerce and Justice departments as well as science agencies like NASA and the National Science Foundation. In 2023, he reintroduced legislation that would ensure General Schedule and Federal Wage System employees are provided locality pay based on the same locality pay area map — an effort to address differences in how white- and blue-collar federal workers are paid.  

He is being challenged by businessman Rob Bresnahan. Cook has identified the race as a toss-up, but Cartwirght is used to close races. He won re-election in both 2020 and 2022 by less than four points.  

Projected Winner: Republican Rob Bresnahan 

6. Ohio’s 9th Congressional District 

The longest-serving woman in Congress, Marcy Kaptur, is running against Republican state representative Derek Merrin. Kaptur is the lead Democrat on the House Appropriations subcommittee that handles the Energy Department and Army Corps of Engineers. 

Kaptur recently introduced bipartisan legislation to extend the amount of time surviving spouses of deceased service members can retain their active-duty family member status in the Defense Department’s managed health care option insurance plan in order to provide them with fewer out-of-pocket expenses. 

Cook has rated the race as lean Democrat. 

Projected Winner: Democrat Marcy Kaptur

7. Maryland Senate

The race to see who will represent the solidly Democratic state and its approximately 135,000 federal employees in the Senate is surprisingly competitive. Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, the Democratic nominee, is facing off against the state’s popular former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan. 

The American Federation of Government Employees has endorsed Alsobrooks, pointing to her opposition against cuts to federal jobs and support for union rights. 

Hogan has tried to distance himself from Trump, including in a July op-ed for The Washington Post in which he criticizes Project 2025 — an initiative worked on by dozens of former Trump officials to help the next Republican president transition into the White House. 

“Project 2025 proposes to eliminate civil service protections for most [federal] workers, instead creating more political appointees chosen by the president. The goal is to remove nonpartisan civil servants, most of whom patriotically do their jobs without fanfare or political agendas, and replace them with loyalists to the president,” he wrote. “Republicans who believe this power grab will benefit them in the short term will ultimately regret empowering a Democratic president with this level of control.”

Despite the competitive nature of the race, Cook has rated it as likely Democrat. 

Projected Winner: Democrat Angela Alsobrooks 

8. Arizona Senate 

Whoever replaces Independent Kyrsten Sinema will likely play a significant role in negotiating border and immigration legislation. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate who was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2014, supports increased funding to hire border patrol agents and for assisting border communities in handling migration. His opponent — Kari Lake, an ally of Trump who narrowly lost the governor’s race in 2022 — is advocating to build a wall along the southern border and limit asylum. 

Cook has labeled the race as lean Democrat. 

Projected Winner: Democrat Ruben Gallego 

9. Iowa’s First Congressional District 

Mariannette Miller-Meeks holds significant influence over veterans health care as the top Republican on the House Veterans’ Affairs subcommittee that oversees the Veterans Health Administration. She also recently introduced legislation to expand access to mental health resources for Bureau of Prisons officers. 

In a rematch of their 2022 race, Miller-Meeks is running against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, a law professor and former state representative. Cook has rated it as a toss-up. 

Projected Winner: Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks

10. New Hampshire’s First Congressional District 

Chris Pappas is a senior Democrat on the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, leading on legislation to address emergency care coverage for new veterans and improving training for Veterans Affairs Department managers. He is running against businessman, former state senator and former state executive council member Russell Prescott. 

Cook has rated the race as likely Democrat.  

Projected Winner: Democrat Chris Pappas