Motivational Challenge

The loudest sound in Washington this week was the huge sigh from Republican officials relieved that their chances of holding Tom DeLay's congressional district have improved from, at best, 50-50 to more like 90-10.

To be sure, few partisans ever like to see a former leader, no matter how controversial, throw in the towel, as DeLay did when he announced that he will resign from his seat. But with their party holding just a 15-seat edge in the House, the folks at the National Republican Congressional Committee did not need the severe headache that DeLay's bid for re-election in Texas's 22nd District had become.

DeLay never actually trailed Democratic former Rep. Nick Lampson in head-to-head trial heats, at least in Republican polls, but the numbers were ominous for the former House majority leader. DeLay's unfavorable rating was higher than his favorable one.

The fact that DeLay could have a net unfavorable rating yet not trail Lampson indicates just how Republican his district continues to be, even though DeLay gave up some of its reliably GOP areas during his successful mid-decade redistricting gambit to slash the number of Democrats in the Lone Star State's congressional delegation.

DeLay breezed through his primary, but winning the general election was going to be tough. He was faced with the prospect of raising money for what surely would have become one of the most expensive House races in history, while also raising cash to cover his mounting legal bills. It is unlikely that DeLay would have been able to sell a book to erase his legal bills, as President Clinton did after leaving office.

Now Republicans are sorting out what to do next. One option is to have DeLay move his legal residence out of Texas so that local Republicans can select a replacement nominee. The other is to have the governor call a special election. The first scenario is more likely since Lampson would have a huge financial advantage in a short special-election campaign.

While Republicans will probably retain DeLay's district, that victory -- if it materializes -- will have come at considerable cost. Democratic allegations that an arrogant Republican House majority has broken laws and fostered a "culture of corruption" have been seemingly corroborated on front pages and evening-news programs across the country.

And even if Republican scandals in Washington have not emerged as the overarching national issue that Democratic leaders had hoped they would be, the incessant drip, drip, drip of scandal stories bolsters the Democrats' contention that it's "time for a change." As former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., helpfully suggested, Democrats can just ask the electorate, "Had enough?"

The perception that Republicans have been in power too long -- not the corruption issue -- accounts for much of what is ailing the GOP this year. While the "culture of corruption" chant will help keep Democratic voters in the Democratic column and sway a disproportionate number of independent voters to lean to the left, the biggest danger for the GOP is that its own voters will become disillusioned or complacent in an election in which the opposition's voters are hungry, agitated, and energized.

In presidential election years, roughly half of the voting-age population casts ballots. But in midterm elections, just one-third participates. Generally, independents are the ones who sit out midterms.

When a midterm election turns into a blowout, it's usually because one party's base was far more energized than the other's. The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll suggests that Democrats are already more fired up than Republicans. Pollsters Peter Hart, a Democrat, and Bill McInturff, a Republican, asked voters how interested they are in the November midterm elections on a scale of 1 (low interest) to 10. While 53 percent of Democrats picked 10, just 43 percent of Republicans did. Simply put, Republican officials need to find a way to motivate their base by November, or holding Texas 22 will simply be a symbol of winning a battle but losing the war.