First-Quarter Grades

Analyzing politics can be viewed as a science or as an art. Likewise, presidential campaigns can be evaluated objectively, based on quantitative measurements, or subjectively, based on judgment, experience, and intuition. Neither way is perfect, but all too often people look at elections entirely through a subjective prism, and they can sometimes end up drawing rather odd conclusions.

Fundraising totals and poll results don't reveal who will win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, but they do provide a useful starting point for examining how the contenders stack up. After a certain point, it is a fool's errand to attempt to quantify the unquantifiable, but we can look at national polls, and polls in crucial states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, and we can examine how much money each candidate has raised and spent.

Of course, even those are imperfect indicators of how the contest is unfolding. There are long campaigns ahead -- mistakes to be made, minds to be changed.

Nevertheless, assigning grades to the 2008 presidential candidates' early efforts to fill their war chests and win voters' allegiance is an interesting exercise. In grading contenders' poll results, let's say that averaging 30 percent support or higher merits an A+, 25 percent earns an A, 20 percent is a B+, 15 percent is a B, 10 percent is a C+, and 5 percent is a C. Likewise, let's say that raising at least $30 million or more for the first quarter of 2007 earns an A+, $25 million is an A, $20 million rates a B+, and so on down in $5 million increments.

For the GOP, in recent national opinion polls, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani averages 35 percent support, an A+. Sen. John McCain's 19 percent gets him a B. At 9 percent each, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are C's. All of the other declared candidates are lower than that. Former Sen. Fred Thompson's poll numbers are running anywhere from 10 percent, a C+, to 17 percent, a solid B. We need a few more polls with Thompson in the mix to get a firmer fix on his score.

In polls limited to Iowa, McCain and Giuliani each get a B+, and Romney earns a C+; in New Hampshire, McCain pulls an A, and Giuliani and Romney both get a B+. Finally, in terms of first-quarter campaign contributions, Romney leads with a B+. Giuliani gets a B, and McCain gets a C+.

On the Democratic side, in national polling, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's 36 percent average support earns her an A+, and Sen. Barack Obama's 24 percent gets him a B+. Former Sen. John Edwards and former Vice President Gore each average about 15 percent, a B.

Turning to Iowa, it's Edwards with an A, and Clinton and Obama both with a B+. In New Hampshire, Clinton gets an A+, Edwards scores a B+, and Obama gets a B. Clinton raised just over $26 million. Obama was slightly behind with $25.7 million. They both get an A. Edwards garnered a C+ for raising just over $14 million.

So for the first-quarter GOP report card, Giuliani sits at the head of his class. He gets an A+ in national polling, a B+ in Iowa polls, a B+ in New Hampshire, and a B in fundraising. This averages out to a B+. McCain is not far behind. He scores an A in New Hampshire polls, a B+ in Iowa, a B in national polling, and a C+ in fundraising. This gives him a B average. Romney's best grades are his B+'s in New Hampshire polls and in money. But he gets only a C+ in Iowa, and a C in national polling. This leaves Romney with a B average.

For Democrats, Clinton sits on top. She gets A+'s in national polls and in New Hampshire polls, an A in fundraising, and a B+ in Iowa. This gives her a strong A average. Obama gets an A in money, a B+ in national polling, a B+ in Iowa, and a B in New Hampshire, for an average grade of B. Edwards gets an A in Iowa, a B+ in New Hampshire, a B in national polling, and a C+ in fundraising, for a B average.

We'll revisit the report cards after the second quarter, with the curve getting tougher on fundraising.