Giuliani’s Opening

Rudy Giuliani's quest for the Republican presidential nomination got off to an impressive start, with his national poll numbers rising from early 2006 through February of this year.

At his peak, the former mayor of New York City polled about 33 percent in the moving average of all major national polls compiled by Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin on their website, Pollster.com. Then, in early March, Giuliani's numbers turned downward at about a 45-degree angle, edging below 25 percent in the latest surveys.

It looks as if the line charting Giuliani's slide could, within a matter of weeks, intersect with the one plotting Fred Thompson's rising popularity. The former Tennessee senator's numbers have been climbing steeply, already reaching 20 percent.

Loyal readers of my column know that I have long been extremely skeptical of Giuliani's chances of winning the GOP nomination, even joking that I'll win the Tour de France before Giuliani wins the GOP nod. Although my assessment hasn't changed, if Giuliani is to have a chance of turning this race around-and that is a big "if"-he'd better seize it now.

In addition to Giuliani's impressive second-quarter fundraising, which contrasts with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's relatively underwhelming numbers-Giuliani could conceivably be the primary beneficiary of the implosion of John McCain's campaign.

Although the Arizona senator technically remains a presidential candidate, you could probably get a 15 percent commission on all new funds his campaign will raise in the next six months and still have a hard time affording a three-bedroom town house inside the Beltway. It's a very good bet that McCain's support will continue to dissipate over the coming months as his backers move to more-viable candidates.

As the best-known alternative to McCain, Giuliani logically stands to benefit from the Arizonan's slide, and there's some evidence to suggest that Giuliani's support could soon perk up. The results of two combined June surveys conducted by Thom Riehle and his firm, RT Strategies, for The Cook Political Report showed that if McCain's supporters (18 percent of GOP voters) were reallocated by their second-choice candidates, Giuliani would gain 7 points-rising to 27 percent. Thompson would gain only 1 point-to 16 percent, and Romney would garner just 2 extra points, taking him to 10 percent.

The Gallup Poll's editor-in-chief, Frank Newport, found a similar pattern when he aggregated the results of two Gallup Polls from June and one from July. With McCain in the race, Giuliani led the pack with 30 percent; McCain ran second with 18 percent; Thompson was third with 16 percent; Romney was fourth with 9 percent; and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has not indicated whether he will run, had 7 percent.

Recalculating the McCain vote by his supporters' second choices boosted Giuliani 8 points to 38 percent; Thompson and Romney picked up 2 points each, rising to 18 percent and 11 percent, respectively. Gingrich gained 1 point, to 8 percent. If you recalculate the support for both McCain and Gingrich, who is not expected to run, Giuliani moves up to 40 percent, Thompson to 20 percent, and Romney to 12 percent.

These results indicate that Giuliani definitely has the opportunity to move up, but they don't make it a fait accompli. Indeed, the first major national poll conducted and released after the staff exodus from the McCain campaign, a July 12-15 survey of 417 Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, showed not a digit of movement toward or away from Giuliani, McCain, or Thompson from their standings in an early July poll.

Giuliani held steady at 30 percent, Thompson at 20 percent, and McCain at 16 percent. Arguably, the survey was taken too soon after McCain's campaign self-destructed for voters to have registered its collapse. The rush to Giuliani's side could happen. It just hasn't happened yet.