Primary Predictions

If a cartoonist were trying to depict the battles for the 2008 presidential nominations, the Democratic picture might show Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as a locomotive hurtling along beneath the question, "Can anyone derail her?" and the GOP picture might depict the Republican candidates as contestants on "Survivor."

But the interesting question about Clinton really isn't whether someone, theoretically, can stop her: It's easy to dream up scenarios in which she would not win the Democratic nomination. The tougher question is will any of her rivals be able to stop her.

Like a gambler putting all of his chips on one number of a roulette wheel, John Edwards is staking his entire political fortune on squeaking out a win in the Iowa caucuses. The Hawkeye State is one place where the former senator from North Carolina is still doing well -- ahead by a bit in some polls, tied in others, and running a strong second in a few more.

Edwards entered the year with a surprisingly large reservoir of goodwill and support in Iowa, but Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama have closed much, if not all, of the gap that Edwards had worked to open up. Meanwhile, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has moved up in Iowa and New Hampshire polling in recent months. He is just starting to appear on some radar screens, although not quite enough to rate a place on many lists of front-runners. But he has moved out of the third tier, and that's worth noting.

As for Obama, his problem probably isn't that he's black; it's that he comes across as green, with his very youthful appearance and thin resume beyond the state legislative level combining to create doubts about whether he is ready for the job of leader of the free world.

Obama has strong support among the romantic, idealistic wing of the Democratic Party that loves what his nomination would say about the party and what his election would say about the country. But in trying to move beyond the kinds of Democrats that supported candidates such as Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, and Bill Bradley (some would add Howard Dean), Obama has encountered strong resistance.

When analysts discuss Clinton as a candidate, terms such as "focused," "disciplined," and "surefooted" frequently come up. In a recent Politico column, veteran political reporter Roger Simon clocked back-to-back Clinton stump speeches in New Hampshire. One was 32 minutes, 42 seconds; the other, 32 minutes, 35 seconds -- a seven-second difference. That's discipline.

Although many ask whether Clinton is becoming "more likable," a better way of looking at her might be to say that she is becoming "less unacceptable." Voters may or may not be enamored of her, but she has begun to benefit from being compared with one or more of her competitors.

The Republican contest, by contrast, is perplexing. A strong case can be made against every single Republican's chances of winning his party's nomination. But one of them will. Which one?

Is former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani more likely to be done in by his positions on social issues and his personal problems than former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is to be by his ideological metamorphosis on those same issues and his Mormon religion? And is Sen. John McCain hopelessly dragged down by his lack of money, his views on immigration, and the confusion over whether he is a maverick or a team player? What about former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's lack of money and national organizational infrastructure? Are former Sen. Fred Thompson's metabolism and campaign organization too slow? One could easily write off every one of these contenders, and they are the front-runners.

Just as Clinton appears to be becoming less unacceptable, one of these Republicans is going to see his problems end up being "less fatal" than those of the others. But who will it be? Political insiders point more to Romney, outsiders more to Giuliani, and those wanting to be really contrarian to Huckabee. Only those with a need to lobby either the Senate Commerce Committee or the Senate Armed Services Committee point to McCain.

As Lewis Carroll would say, the GOP contest is getting curiouser and curiouser.