A Strange Game of Hearts
Each party's primary contest has political analysts scratching their heads.
This presidential campaign season is perhaps the most confusing and disorienting one I've ever watched closely. As strange as the unfolding drama for the Republican nomination is, the turn of events on the Democratic side is what really has political analysts scratching our heads.
The situation in the Republican race is odd, but at least partially understandable. No candidate has managed to fill the vacuum in the hearts of Republican voters. In their eyes, no one comes close to measuring up to Ronald Reagan, the GOP gold standard. Party members are in something of a malaise. They may be willing to defend aspects of George W. Bush's presidency, but few are ready to rally around a 2008 campaign slogan of "Four More Years" or "Stay the Course."
The GOP contenders are an interesting and diverse group. Republicans like characteristics of each -- Rudy Giuliani's strength after 9/11 and his history of winning Democratic and independent votes; John McCain's personal story and national security experience; Mitt Romney's managerial expertise; Fred Thompson's plainspokenness; Mike Huckabee's charm. But none has succeeded yet in establishing a broad-based appeal.
All of these men, with the possible exception of Thompson, have contests they can reasonably hope to win in the coming weeks. Indeed, arguably, almost any of them could win the nomination. But in the end the party will just settle on someone, not have its heart captured.
Hillary Rodham Clinton's New Hampshire victory is a puzzler. Until early December, I was convinced that she would win the Democratic nomination, but I began to have doubts as the Barack Obama tide began to build.
When I arrived in Iowa at the end of December, I still thought Clinton had a tiny edge in the race to be her party's standard-bearer. So walking into the Democratic caucus at the Callahan Middle School in a working-class neighborhood in western Des Moines and finding Obama winning the support of 174 of 368 attendees on the initial preference vote -- with just 63 for Clinton -- was almost shocking.
Most impressive was that the Obama half of the room was filled with a very diverse group of people -- not overwhelmingly young. And although just about all of the African-Americans were in Obama's section, they were few in number.
Iowa certainly left me with the impression that Obama had become an all-but-unstoppable phenomenon. Polling heading into the New Hampshire primary seemed to confirm that he was on a roll. The question seemed to be not whether Obama would win New Hampshire, but by how much.
After Clinton's startling victory there, two possible explanations stand out. First, while Obama was capturing hearts, especially of young people, with his inspirational and aspirational appeals, Clinton's hard, brittle facade seemed to keep voters, particularly women, from identifying with her. In personal appearances in Iowa, she did project some warmth and humor, but those qualities simply didn't come through in television interviews, news stories, or campaign ads. It wasn't until Clinton choked up a bit on Monday that she showed her human side. In the end, women voters "came home" to Clinton, voting for the first viable female presidential candidate in U.S. history.
A second factor could be that Granite State primary voters have a history of rejecting Iowa victors. Indeed a T-shirt in New Hampshire read, "Don't Take Us for Granite." New Hampshire has held the first primary since long before Iowa moved up its caucuses, and New Hampshire voters deeply resent any implication that a nomination is decided before they have had their say.
What happens next on the Democratic side is anyone's guess. Democrats love the message that Obama's candidacy sends, but they see some value in going with experience and in electing the first female president -- if that woman shows a bit of warmth. In her Tuesday night victory speech, Clinton did not seem to grasp or express the importance of what had happened, except when she said she had finally found her own voice.
A warm, experienced Hillary Clinton can probably prevail over an inspirational Barack Obama. A chilly but experienced Clinton probably can't.