Capitol Hill forecast: Even less legislative agreement

Both parties hemmed and hawed about the lengthy delay facing the farm bill in the Senate this fall, but the silver lining is that Congress will probably finish the popular and ultimately bipartisan legislation in 2008, giving lawmakers at least one achievement for the coming calendar year to tout during their re-election campaigns. It may be the only big-ticket bill that Congress passes and President Bush signs next year, however, as Republicans and Democrats alike predict even less legislative agreement ahead than in 2007.

"Usually this is the year [the first session in a Congress] that you reserve for governing," Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, said in an interview. "That was the old model. Then you would expect that politics would interfere in the process in the election year. But now it is has just overwhelmed the whole cycle, which is regrettable."

The first session of the 110th Congress is winding down, defined by partisan fights over nearly every major issue that arose. The Democratic majority worked out agreements with President Bush and the Republican minority on only a few big items, including a minimum-wage increase, a plan to raise auto fuel-efficiency standards, a free-trade pact with Peru, and student-loan relief. On issues ranging from the Iraq war to immigration reform to stem-cell research, disagreement and stalemate reigned. The second session that begins on January 15 -- amid the presidential primaries -- promises more of the same. "It probably pans out to be a hard year for major achievements," Rep. David Price, D-N.C., conceded.

Numerous factors favor gridlock. For starters, Bush has little ability to promote legislation. Throughout his second term, even when Republicans controlled the House and Senate, he has been unable to get his initiatives through. Democrats complain that Bush has done nothing but frustrate them since they assumed control in January. "It's not just an election year; he's not just a lame duck," Price said. "He's got a Democratic Congress that he's pretty thoroughly antagonized. He can block things, but he's in a very poor position to initiate much -- and he's made his own bed on that."

Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., chairwoman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, went further in dismissing Bush. "He's becoming increasingly irrelevant," she said. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., told reporters on December 11 that the president is "impossible" to deal with.

On the flip side, Democrats have garnered little goodwill with members of the Republican minority, who now see few incentives to cooperate with the majority on its agenda. Even Snowe, a moderate who frequently sides with Democrats on domestic issues and has backed their calls for Iraq troop withdrawal timetables, said that the majority has been heavy-handed in using procedural tactics to prevent Republicans from offering amendments.

"It's constant obstruction -- the cloture votes, procedural hindrances, and roadblocks by the majority in filling up the amendment tree," Snowe said. "They fill up the tree to limit our ability to offer amendments. Having that amendment process is really the custom of the United States Senate."

Republicans are also disinclined to back Democratic legislation because the majority is following "pay-as-you-go" rules, which require budgetary offsets for any new entitlement spending or tax cuts. Those rules have tripped up agreement on the State Children's Health Insurance Program, energy legislation, and alternative minimum tax relief. Republicans contend that Democrats typically propose tax hikes, rather than spending cuts, to meet the "paygo" rules. "Paygo's just another excuse for raising taxes," Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said. "They're not willing to cut. They just want to spend. Their answer to everything is, let's have more taxes."

Republican leaders are banking that voters will reward them for standing up to Democratic efforts to increase spending, raise taxes, and undermine Bush's plans for the Iraq war. "Clearly they are demonstrating once again they're the party of taxation, regulation, and litigation," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told reporters on November 7. "Look at what they're trying to do, bill by bill by bill."

Democratic leaders counter that Republicans' refusal to sign on to Democratic legislation is actually good for Democrats. They don't seem too concerned about their potential vulnerability to Republican catcalls about a "Do Nothing" Congress. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said that GOP opposition to Democratic bills will help his party increase its majority next November.

"The only good news out of this obstructionism -- overall, bad, bad news for the American people -- is, they're building our case to get more votes in the Senate," Schumer told reporters on December 5. "We're going to start making it clear that the reason [the Democrats' agenda] hasn't happened is not because we had too few Republicans in the Senate, but too many. Not that we have too many Democrats here, but too few. And that message is going to resonate. You watch."

Because both parties see electoral advantage in gridlock, gridlock is likely next year, said William Galston, a Brookings Institution political scientist. "They'll do what's necessary," Galston said. "I don't think anybody wants to be tagged with the responsibility of allowing the alternative minimum tax to expand. And clearly they'll have to do something to get the budget through to the new president's inauguration. That will include, I'm sure, continuing funding for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It's not immediately clear how much else is likely to get done."

Immigration legislation appears to be dead after meeting resounding defeat in the Senate in June. Social Security reform is a nonstarter. Some key Democrats favor reauthorizing the No Child Left Behind Act -- the top domestic legislative achievement of Bush's presidency other than tax cuts -- before he leaves office. "I was talking to the president just the other day at the White House, and both of us would like to have it done next year," said Rep. Dale Kildee, D-Mich., a House Education and Labor subcommittee chairman. "Otherwise, we leave in place the same defects that exist there now."

But interests on both the left and the right have lined up against the law, with teachers unions calling it too onerous for schools and conservatives contending that it unwisely expanded federal authority over education. Presidential contenders in both parties have complained about the act. "You don't exactly have people rushing to defend it in either party," Galston said. "The dynamic of the presidential election has not been particularly kind to that piece of legislation."

Another item on the agenda is global-warming legislation, a top priority of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee has approved a bill that would establish a cap-and-trade system to reduce emissions that environmentalists say contribute to global warming. The bill is co-sponsored by Sens. Joe Lieberman, ID-Conn., and John Warner, R-Va., a longtime consensus builder who is retiring next year and would enjoy a boost for his legacy.

But again, lawmakers of both parties are pessimistic that it will pass next year. "Everybody I talk to says, 'Yes, I like it -- but...,' " Sen. George Voinovich, R-Ohio, said in an interview. "And if we take care of their 'but,' then you get somebody else's 'but.' " Boxer said she is looking beyond Bush on climate-change legislation. "The important thing is to make it a big issue here, get it done and take it as far as we can get it" in 2008, she said. "[Bush is] going to be gone. For us right now, [the goal is] to make this a big election-year issue, both in the presidential race and in the Senate races."

Some less sweeping legislation could face better prospects next year. Proponents see potential bipartisan action on bills reauthorizing the Federal Aviation Administration, enhancing consumer product safety, and reforming patent laws. Various free-trade agreements with small nations may be considered.

Democrats may also schedule votes on measures that are unlikely to pass but are nonetheless important to their liberal base. The fight over Iraq policy, crucial to anti-war activists, is likely to be renewed in March, when Gen. David Petraeus gives Congress another war progress report. The Senate may take up House-passed legislation codifying workplace rights for gays and lesbians. Democrats will probably renew their push to expand SCHIP, with an eye toward pressuring Republicans all year long. "What we may end up doing is extending it and having another vote right on the eve of the election," Price said. "That might be a good time to have another vote."

History has shown that presidential election years are not necessarily death knells for legislation. Welfare reform, for example, was enacted in 1996 after President Clinton compromised with the Republican-controlled Congress. In 1988, President Reagan and the Democratic-controlled Congress cleared legislation on trade, Medicare, and welfare. Both breakthroughs were preceded by years of stalemate, in 1995 and 1987. Indeed, 1995 was perhaps the pinnacle of partisan standoffs, culminating in the government shutdowns. "It'll really be up to whether people really want to get something done," said Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev.

One of the Hill's consummate deal-makers, Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., who helped broker the 1996 welfare legislation, won't be in Congress to see how it all turns out. Lott, who is retiring this month, told reporters in one of his final press scrums that lawmakers of both parties should want to rack up some accomplishments.

"Any time you get something done, that's probably good for the country," Lott said. "But what is never acceptable is nothing, inactivity. When you do nothing, you lose." For now, Congress appears ready to test that theory in 2008.