McCain's Own Surge
The GOP has serious problems in the fall, but John McCain may not be one of them.
By almost every available gauge, Republicans are in deep trouble. Except, that is, for the one that counts most -- the presidential election trial heat.
The GOP has serious problems, no doubt. According to a report released by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press last week, in the center's 5,566 interviews with registered voters during January and February, 36 percent identified themselves as Democrats and just 27 percent called themselves Republicans. That is the lowest proportion for the GOP in Pew's 16 years of polling.
When Pew asked independents which way they leaned, Democrats' share of support went up to 51 percent, Republicans' to 37 percent. Rather than breaking out the champagne, though, Democrats should be concerned that their party's relative strength comes not from a sudden surge in popularity but from voters abandoning the GOP.
The Pew findings correspond with a January report by the Gallup Organization showing that 2007 was the lowest ebb in GOP support since 1988. More than 26,000 interviews with adults nationwide showed a Democratic self-identification advantage of 11 points (50.6 percent to 39.6 percent), compared with Democrats' 2.7 percent edge (47.9 percent to 45.2 percent) in 2004, and 4.5 percent lead (46.9 percent to 42.4 percent) in 2000. Exit polls in 2004 showed that Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry won 89 percent of his party members' votes and President Bush carried 93 percent of his.
On top of these discouraging numbers, there's more bad news for Republicans. Polls show that the GOP is losing ground in three areas -- on the generic presidential ballot test, on the question of which party is better able to handle a particular issue, and on the parties' favorable and unfavorable ratings. And when it comes to fundraising -- for the presidential election, congressional races, and party committees -- the picture is likewise bleak for the GOP. Although Republicans have turned out in respectable numbers for their contested presidential primaries this season, Democratic turnout has been through the roof.
So it is interesting that presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain is running even with or slightly ahead of Democratic contenders Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton in head-to-head polling matchups. In Pollster.com's averages of national polls, McCain leads Obama by 4.7 points, 47.5 percent to 42.8 percent; and he leads Clinton by 1.8 points, 46.8 percent to 45.0 percent. Using RealClearPolitics.com's averages, McCain leads Obama 46.0 percent to 44.6 percent, and leads Clinton 46.3 percent to 45.7 percent. In the Gallup tracking poll through March 24, McCain had a 1-percentage-point lead over both Democrats.
So, is McCain running ahead of his party, or are Obama and Clinton running behind theirs? After all, a generic Democratic presidential candidate leads a generic Republican by 13 points in the March 7-10 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 50 percent to 37 percent.
The answer to both questions appears to be yes. McCain has a slight lead in support among Republicans compared with Obama's or Clinton's support among Democrats, and he is besting Clinton among independents. In the NBC/WSJ poll, McCain is drawing 83 percent of the GOP vote against Obama and 89 percent against Clinton; Obama and Clinton draw 77 percent and 80 percent, respectively, of the Democratic vote against McCain. Among independents, Obama edges out McCain, 43 percent to 40 percent, and bests Clinton, 46 percent to 39 percent.
In the March 6-9 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll, McCain carried 86 percent of the Republican vote while Obama and Clinton drew 75 percent and 77 percent, respectively, of the Democratic vote against McCain. Among independents, McCain beat Obama 46 percent to 34 percent, and defeated Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent.
What can't be known is how much of McCain's advantage comes from his having already clinched his party's nomination. The fight on the Democratic side will likely last at least until the April 22 Pennsylvania primary and possibly until the national convention in late August.
The Obama-Clinton tangle for their party's nomination could be part of the reason that neither Democrat is leading McCain in current national polls. If that's the case, the Democratic Party has a problem that isn't likely to go away soon.