Into the Void

In contemplating the future of the GOP, it is hard to avoid focusing on the coming fight for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. In the absence of a party leader with an outsized, charismatic personality -- think House Minority Leader Newt Gingrich circa 1993 -- a minority party has a hard time defining itself. And, like it or not, its presidential candidates tend to become the face of the party.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio are intelligent and talented, but neither would claim to be a latter-day Gingrich. Whoever is elected chairman of the Republican National Committee is not likely to play that role either. So the jousting for the party's 2012 White House nomination, a race that will get into gear the day after the 2010 midterm elections, will take on special importance.

One of the best tests of who is doing well in the early jockeying was a Gallup Poll of 799 Republicans and Republican-leaning -independents conducted on November 5 to 16. From a list of 10 possible GOP contenders, respondents were asked which ones they would like to see run for president in 2012.

Running first was the party's 2008 vice presidential nominee, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, with 67 percent wanting her to run; 30 percent did not want her in the 2012 race. Next came former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 62 percent (32 percent opposed), and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 61 percent (33 percent opposed). Romney and Huckabee, of course, were 2008 presidential contenders. In fourth place was Army Gen. David Petraeus with 49 percent (39 percent opposed). He was followed by another 2008 candidate, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 48 percent (47 percent opposed).

The final five drew more opposition than support. Gingrich got the nod from 47 percent (48 percent opposed). Next were Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, 34 percent (36 percent opposed); former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 31 percent (61 percent opposed); Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, 23 percent (46 percent opposed); and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, 21 percent (53 percent opposed).

Low name recognition probably accounts for some of those high negative scores. It's hard to imagine that many folks outside of their home states know Jindal, Crist, or Graham well enough to have strong feelings about them.

Is Palin's support real and sustainable? Clearly, she generated an enormous amount of energy within the GOP base last September. And she certainly cuts through the clutter with an unorthodox approach to politics.

But I wonder how plausible it is to think that Palin could serve effectively as CEO of Alaska and run for a presidential nomination almost a half-continent away. It was one thing when Texas Gov. George W. Bush was running from Austin or when Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton was competing from Little Rock. For both candidates, Iowa, New Hampshire, and the money centers in California, Florida, Illinois, and New York were scarcely two hours away by private jet. But working the Lincoln Day Dinner circuit from Juneau? If Palin is serious about running for president, she might be well advised not to seek re-election in 2010.

Beyond the geographic challenges, running for president is prohibitively expensive. Although the Republican Party has lots of deep pockets, it's not clear that the social and cultural conservatives who are Palin's biggest boosters have the money to bankroll her. Like Romney and Huckabee, Palin is creating a federal political action committee.

Jindal's challenge is that he is up for re-election in November 2011, just two months before the Iowa caucuses. Running simultaneously for governor and president isn't a good option. Neither is serving just one term, given the task of trying to turn Louisiana around. Watch for him to take a pass on 2012.

Despite the November poll numbers, which probably reflect considerable Bush fatigue, keep an eye on Jeb. His decision not to run for the open Senate seat in Florida next year preserves his options for 2012, if the fatigue wears off. With Florida as his base, Brother Bush could be more of a contender than this early poll standing suggested. And he is someone who could help the Republican Party restore its image of competence.