Winds of Change

My guess is that I was not alone when I cringed late last month upon opening my 401(k) retirement plan statement for the previous quarter, nor when I winced this week as the stock market plummeted to a 12-year low. At least health club stocks should be surging. After all, a lot of us need to develop healthier habits: With our retirement savings just a fraction of what they were a year ago, we will be working years longer than we originally intended.

News reports say that Americans lost about $3 trillion in home equity in 2008, and about $7 trillion in shareholder wealth. The losses are still piling up and will probably continue to do so over the next few months.

Tom Brokaw's "Greatest Generation," which includes my parents, is remembered for its sacrifices during World War II. But members of that generation were shaped by their experiences in the Great Depression, when frugality and self-reliance were vital. My mom and dad paid off the mortgage on their house years early to appease my grandfather, who worried constantly about their debt to the bank. My parents paid cash for all of their cars. They were shaped by their times.

The question is, how will we be shaped -- socially, culturally, and politically -- by the difficult times we now face? How will this environment affect our long-term behavior and point of view? Learning the answers will be a challenge for candidates and elected officials, for their aides and strategists, and, most of all, for their pollsters.

Our reactions may come in layers, evolving over time. One hunch is that we will shove "small" issues aside and focus on the big ones. Voters may have a greater sense of proportionality. The sheriff in Richland County, S.C., was hotly criticized for investigating whether Olympic champion Michael Phelps smoked pot while visiting the county last fall. Many observers wondered if the sheriff might not have spent his time solving burglaries, robberies, and murders rather than worrying about whether some kids puffed from a bong four months ago.

What about the authentic big-ticket issues? What impact will recent events have on talk of Social Security and other entitlement reform? Will the growing ranks of people who are economically vulnerable make Social Security even more of a "third-rail" issue, or instead provide greater motivation to stabilize essential safety-net programs and make them solvent? Will economic misfortune make voters more adult or more childlike in dealing with such difficult matters?

One might hope that the economic calamities will encourage voters to support their elected officials in grappling with these issues rather than continuing to kick them down the road. Pretending that home values would never again decline has virtually wrecked our national economy and, to a certain extent, the world economy. The meltdown has reminded us that actions have consequences. We are paying the price for many bad decisions by our top policy makers (in both parties and in many corners of the government) as well as by many average Americans who exaggerated their income and assets to qualify for homes that were way beyond their means.

Sadly, the final edition of Profiles in Courage went to the printer long ago. Courage is rarely rewarded in politics today, and thus rarely seen. One of the more insightful people to serve in Congress over the past 20 years was Republican Rep. J.C. Watts of Oklahoma, who retired in 2002. Watts was best remembered for saying, "Character is doing the right thing when nobody's looking." Our problem these days is getting people to do the right thing when others are looking.

Our nation is going through a wrenching experience, one that only the oldest among us can possibly relate to. Some parts of the country are feeling the recession more than others, but it is only a matter of time before the downturn touches all Americans. I have heard little discussion of the larger consequences from such a great upheaval and loss of wealth. We have yet to determine the personal and social costs -- and the political fallout -- that will flow from this crisis.

We will surely see some important shifts in public opinion. It's a good bet that some political figures will learn from this and that others will miss the turn and pay the price.