Early Clues

As I wrote last week, for clues about what the political environment will be in November 2010, watch the economy, President Obama's job-approval ratings, and the generic congressional ballot test. The jury will be out on each of those factors for another year and a half, but new data hint at where they now stand.

Although the economy continues to be in "one-step-forward, one-step-back" mode, it is doing better than even a month or two ago. And Obama's numbers are holding up impressively well.

On the political front, a new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll of 833 registered voters, conducted April 8-11, pegged the president's approval rating at 60 percent, with disapproval at 30 percent. Those numbers are very similar to the results of the most recent week of Gallup's aggregated tracking poll ratings among all adults: 61 percent approve of Obama's performance; 28 percent disapprove.

The Cook/RT Strategies poll asked, "Regardless of how you might plan to vote in your own district, which party would you like to see in control of Congress after the congressional elections in 2010?" Respondents gave Democrats the edge by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent, a slightly wider margin than in most polls over the past two months.

Voters were then asked, "If the election for president were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Barack Obama, probably vote to re-elect Barack Obama, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else?" (The options were reversed in half the interviews.) Fifty percent said they would "definitely" or "probably" vote for Obama (32 percent definitely; 18 percent probably), and 39 percent said they would "definitely" or "probably" opt for someone else (26 percent definitely; 13 percent probably). Eleven percent were not sure.

Next, voters were asked which of these statements was closest to their own view: "I like Obama personally, and I like his policies"; "I like Obama personally, but I do not like his policies"; "I do not like Obama personally, but I like his policies"; "I do not like Obama personally, and I do not like his policies." A majority, 51 percent, liked Obama and his policies; 23 percent liked him but not his policies; 3 percent did not like him but liked his policies; 13 percent did not like him or his policies; and 11 percent weren't sure.

The fourth question asked voters which of two statements was closer to their own opinion: "We need to have a Democratic Congress in order to help President Obama enact his legislative program." Or, "We need to elect a Republican Congress to act as a check and balance, to keep Democrats from going too far." In response, 48 percent saw more merit in electing a Republican Congress to serve as a check on Democrats; 41 percent preferred a Democratic Congress to work with Obama.

RT Strategies pollster Thom Riehle then asked respondents how Obama is handling his job. Fifty-six percent agreed that "President Obama is bringing the right kind of change to Washington," while 35 percent chose "President Obama is just more of the same Democratic policies."

All in all, these are good numbers for the president and not bad numbers for his party on Capitol Hill, although Democrats clearly should take notice that the "check-and-balance" argument hit a responsive chord with nearly half of the electorate.

But Democrats' success in the midterm elections hinges on the economy's bottoming out and starting to improve. Economic conditions could instead get significantly worse if a major financial institution went belly-up. So, responses to the survey's final question should be sobering for Democrats.

"Suppose another major bank or insurance company is on the verge of bankruptcy," respondents were told. "If the Obama administration determines that the new problem is similar to the situation that led to the federal government's intervention to assist troubled banks and insurance companies in recent months, would you favor or oppose the federal government intervening in a similar fashion to stabilize that major bank or insurance company?" Sixty-two percent opposed intervention; just 28 percent favored it.

If, God forbid, we get to that point, these numbers suggest that the administration would have a very tough sell, or it would have to spend a great deal of political capital to rescue the endangered institution.