Democrats can now assume that the charmed life they enjoyed in 2006 and 2008 is over. The wind, waves, and tides, which were strong and at their backs in those elections, will at best be still in 2010. The chances of those forces being in their faces this time are rising.
Every week seems to bring more evidence that Democratic momentum is waning. The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll pegged President Obama's job-approval rating at 53 percent, down 3 points from its June results, and at the same level as the newest Gallup tracking poll. Obama's Gallup approval number is his lowest three-night moving average in that poll's six months of interviews.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted by Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Bill McInturff, showed Democrats ahead by 7 points on the generic congressional ballot test, which asks which party respondents would rather see in control of Congress after the next election. But the finding of 46 percent Democratic, 39 percent Republican is the narrowest Democratic advantage in the 16 polls conducted by the two news organizations since April 2006, when the party had only a 6-point edge. Since June 2006, the Democratic advantage had ranged between 9 and 19 points, averaging 12 points. In the Gallup Poll, Democrats hold a 6-point lead on the generic question, 50 percent to 44 percent.
Yet another new survey, this one by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and POS for National Public Radio, found Obama with only a 53 percent job-approval rating; more important, it had the Republicans ahead by a point on the generic congressional ballot test.
Fox News frames the question a bit differently, asking respondents: "In the next congressional election in 2010, are you more likely to vote for the Democrat to help Barack Obama pass his policies and programs, or vote for the Republican to provide a check on Obama's power?" The Democrat came out ahead by 5 points, 43 percent to 38 percent. Although some people might quibble with the question's wording, it's worth noting that Democrats held a 13-point advantage in April and a 12-point advantage in May when Fox News asked exactly the same question.
It is too soon to say that Republicans have captured the momentum or hold the advantage, but a shrinking Democratic edge will almost surely precede a reversal, hence the understandable anxiety on the Democrats' part as they continue wrestling with health care and as the Senate takes up climate-change legislation. Besides those two issues, the driver of the political environment these days is the economy. The signals aren't much clearer there. Initial unemployment claims are way down, comparable to previous declines that foretold the end of recessions; leading economic indicators are up; and housing sales and auto production are up as well. All of this supports the view that the gross domestic product could increase in the last half of 2009. The respected Wall Street economic consulting firm ISI Group estimates a 2 percent GDP growth rate for the current quarter and 3 percent for the fourth quarter, followed by 3.5 percent for calendar year 2010. Among economists, the widespread assumption is that the unemployment rate, the number that historically has carried the most political weight, will remain in double digits through Election Day 2010. If the GDP is up, will its rise outweigh or just partially offset the political downside of double-digit unemployment?
History indicates that the deeper the recession, the quicker the recovery -- the classic "V" shape. These days, inventories are at record lows, suggesting that at some point industrial production will have to really kick up. Lower oil prices and global interest rates also argue for a quick rebound. But pessimists point out that a still-tight credit market means businesses cannot finance expansion and that the structural damage from last year's financial-market debacle could take years to fix. These pros don't foresee a "V." Rather, they expect an "L," an economy that could languish for a couple of years before achieving meaningful growth, particularly in employment.
What's clearly different now is the public's attitude. Americans are saving more. Those who can are paying down debt and handling their money more frugally. People are driving less and are driving smaller cars; they are also telling pollsters that they would rather see the federal budget deficit decline than watch the government pump more money into the economy to end the recession faster. In short, this recession and the stock market (read, retirement savings) plunge has scared the hell out of people in a way not seen since the Great Depression. It may also mean that the public will have little appetite for expensive new programs.