For those of us who pore over polls and election data every day, there is nothing quite like sitting behind a one-way mirror and watching a skilled pollster conduct a focus group: probing beyond the numbers, getting voters to voice their hopes and fears, and putting faces on those sentiments.
Last Monday night I got to see Democratic pollster Peter Hart home in on the attitudes of 11 voters for the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center. The group members -- five Democrats, three Republicans, and three independents -- were from Philadelphia or its suburbs. Seven cast ballots last year for Barack Obama, and four voted for John McCain.
Those who backed Obama remain supportive even though they say that he has not accomplished much so far. Those who opposed him still do, but they acknowledge that he inherited some stubborn problems.
Lately the president's Gallup Poll job-approval rating has been running about 51 percent, a difference of less than 2 points from the 52.87 percent of the vote he received in November 2008. So, although much has happened in the past year, in some ways not much has changed.
Obama's backers exhibit a dogged intensity in their support of him personally. They fervently wish for him to succeed, but some worry that he has spread himself too thin. A year ago, these voters had tremendous -- and probably unrealistically high -- hopes for the new president. They now realize that he does not have a magic wand.
The Obama critics in the focus group begrudgingly concede his intelligence, knowledge, and rhetorical abilities, but they suggest that he is more sizzle than steak and that his inexperience is showing. More than a few of these voters exhibited a bit of an "I told you so" mentality.
But although divisions over Obama remain much the same as last year, the group was united in its disgust toward official Washington and Congress. The president's partisans can take comfort from the fact that his supporters have not abandoned him even after 10 months of a tough recession; but Democratic strategists should be quite worried because the warm and fuzzy, hopeful and admiring sentiments expressed about Obama do not extend to Democrats in Congress. A "pox on both your houses" sentiment was palpable among Obama and McCain supporters.
One telling moment came after Hart asked each voter to write the name that comes to mind when they think of Congress. Bill, a 62-year-old retired automobile-industry executive and independent who backed Obama, wrote "Satan." When Hart asked why, Bill answered, "Because I wasn't sure of the correct spelling of 'Beelzebub.' " Now that's intensity.
Watching Hart conduct a focus group is like watching a maestro at work before a symphony. He pokes and prods, asking participants to explain what they mean, and probes attitudes in a way that no poll can. The Annenberg Center has been sponsoring such focus groups for 10 years. This one will air on C-SPAN soon.
The most moving moments came when two women put human faces on the nation's jobless statistics. With her eyes glistening, Patricia, a 45-year-old working mother, recounted the daily routine of her husband, a carpenter and former marine: "He gets up every day, takes a shower, gets dressed, and no work." She said she had searched Craigslist that morning and found 100 carpenters and home remodelers seeking jobs but only one person looking to hire someone to do that kind of work. Patricia said that never before had she thought that she and her family might become homeless.
Cheryll, a 35-year-old unemployed executive assistant and now stay-at-home mom, said she had been laid off and so had her father and both of her brothers. Her dad, who recently turned 59, lost his job a month after buying his first new car. Cheryll fears that when his unemployment benefits run out he will lose his home. He could be forced to move in with her, she said.
Patricia is a Republican who supported McCain; Cheryll, a Democrat, backed Obama. Patricia seemed to find it hard to say anything positive about the president beyond that "he gives a good speech." Cheryll, despite her family's plight, still admires him. And that is pretty remarkable.