Catching Breaks

With the midterm elections now just six months away, are Democrats' prospects improving? Not really. For every hopeful sign they get, several others -- usually the more telling ones -- point the other way.

The most recent, and quite compelling, bad omen surfaced in an April 27 Gallup report. The polling organization found that, based on interviews with more than 5,000 registered voters from April 1-25, Democrats had a 4-point lead in the generic congressional ballot test among those "not enthusiastic about voting" this year, 46 percent to 42 percent; they had a 14-point lead, 52 percent to 38 percent, among those "somewhat enthusiastic about voting." Among the all-important "very enthusiastic" crowd, aka the folks most likely to vote, Democrats trailed by a whopping 20 points, 57 percent to 37 percent.

Across all registered voters in the Gallup Poll, Republicans held a 1-point lead, 46 percent to 45 percent, a result that's not out of line with other national surveys of registered voters. Because voter turnout in midterm elections is generally a third below that of presidential elections, measuring the intensity of voters' interest in participating provides an important tip-off. And, this year, the passion for voting is almost all Republican.

Even Democratic analysts don't express much optimism about their party's chances this fall. A close reading of the April 26 Democracy Corps report on its April 17-20 national survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research reveals a valiant effort to look for positive green shoots but acknowledges that Democrats are in a very, very difficult situation. The gist of what passes for hope in the Democratic report, which was written by pollsters Stan Greenberg and Peyton Craighill along with strategist James Carville, is just eight words long: "Fortunately, Republicans have not yet closed the deal."

Everyone would do well to remember that we have six months to go and the election's trajectory could still change. This month could provide important clues about whether the Republican storm is still gathering force.

On May 18, Pennsylvania will hold a special election in its 12th Congressional District to fill the House seat of the late John Murtha. This is the only congressional district in the nation that went for Republican John McCain in 2008 after backing Democrat John Kerry in 2004.

It is a swing seat long held by Murtha for his party, but this part of the Keystone State is showing signs of going Republican. A Democratic loss would underscore the narrative that Democrats are in serious trouble heading toward November.

For most of May, voters in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District will be casting mail-in ballots in the contest to succeed Democrat Neil Abercrombie, who retired to run for governor. The results, to be announced on May 22, will be closely watched even though the district is overwhelmingly Democratic. Kerry carried it with 53 percent in 2004, and native son Barack Obama won 70 percent of its votes in 2008.

Republicans have a real pickup opportunity here. The Democratic vote will be split between former Rep. Ed Case and state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa; Honolulu City Council member Charles Djou is the only GOP contender. The Democratic side of this tussle amounts to a political Family Feud, so losing Abercrombie's seat wouldn't say anything about Democrats' national situation except that they aren't catching many breaks this year. Nevertheless, fairly or unfairly, a loss would feed the story line about congressional Democrats' death spiral. What's more, a seat is a seat, and Democratic losses in Hawaii and/or Pennsylvania would lower the bar that the GOP must clear on November 2 to recapture the House.

Even though the outcome of the race for Murtha's seat will be a far better national bellwether than whatever happens in Hawaii, House Democrats are keenly aware that, especially this year, every seat is one they cannot afford to lose.