When Politics Is National

Two of the most common clichés in American political circles are "all politics is local" and "a few months is a lifetime in politics." Each contains a kernel of truth, but both have become all-too-handy excuses for pols seeking to explain away unpleasant realities.

Even the most cursory review reveals many instances -- including the 1994 and 2006 midterm elections and the 1980 and 2008 presidential elections -- when all politics certainly was not local. And although the longer the period before an election, the more time there is for circumstances and dynamics to change, as Election Day nears, the odds of a given situation shifting enough to significantly affect the outcome fall considerably.

In this election year, the circumstances and dynamics have not materially improved for Democrats since Labor Day. With a little more than four months to go before the November election, the chances of this contest's trajectory fundamentally changing decline with every passing week.

The seriousness of the challenge facing Democrats as they strive to hang on to their majority in the House is underscored by the results of a survey that Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and his firm, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, and Republican Glen Bolger and his operation, Public Opinion Strategies, took on June 7-10. The poll, in which 1,200 voters in 70 key competitive congressional districts were questioned for National Public Radio, is unusual and important. Unlike most surveys being taken this far out from the 2010 election, the NPR survey focused on "likely" voters, not the much larger universe of registered voters. It also targeted only the battleground districts -- 60 held by Democrats and 10 by Republicans -- that are expected to largely determine which party will control the speaker's gavel in the next Congress.

This year's outcome is a foregone conclusion in three-quarters of the House districts. Republicans need a 39-seat net gain to capture the chamber in a year in which about one-third fewer voters are expected to cast ballots than did in 2008.

According to the NPR poll, in a modified generic congressional ballot test in which the names of the incumbents, if they are running, are used (otherwise, the candidates are listed as "the Democratic" and "the Republican"), the GOP leads by 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent, across all 70 districts. The Republican Party is also running ahead by 5 points in the 60 Democratic districts, 47 percent to 42 percent. In the 30 Tier One Democratic-held districts, the ones considered most vulnerable, Democrats trail by 9 points, 48 percent to 39 percent. In the 30 somewhat safer Tier Two districts, Democrats are behind by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent. In the 10 battleground GOP districts, Republicans led by 16 points, 53 percent to 37 percent.

In all three sets of districts, voters tended to say that President Bush is more responsible than President Obama for the nation's economic problems. Yet when a number of arguments and messages were tested by pollsters, the results across the board were disturbing for Democrats.

For example, given the choice between agreeing with the statement that "President Obama's economic policies helped avert an even worse crisis, and we are laying the foundation for our eventual economic recovery," or "President Obama's economic policies have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses," voters opted for the more critical assessment by 16 points, 55 percent to 39 percent. In the Democratic-held districts, the more critical statement ran 20 points ahead, 57 percent to 37 percent. In the Tier One Democratic districts, the critical statement did even better -- leading by 24 points.

As Greenberg noted in his analysis of the poll, "the results are a wake-up call for Democrats, whose losses in the House could well exceed 30 seats." He added that "the effort by individual campaigns will have to push against walls that seem very hard to move at this point. We tested Democratic and Republican arguments on the economy, health care, financial reform, and the big picture for the 2010 election. The results consistently favored the Republicans and closely resembled the vote breakdown."

Looking at the Democratic districts surveyed, Bolger's take was, "The political environment is far worse for Democrats in these 60 seats than it is nationally."

This is one year when all politics is not local, and if things are going to change, Democrats need them to change very soon.